It was a frigid start throughout the Midwest this morning with lows as cold as -38 up in Babbit, MN. Chicago hit -1 which was quite impressive given the bare ground. As for the Northeast, the rest of this week will be the coldest in at least 2 years.

Between Washington and Boston, temperatures struggled to even reach the mid-20s today and factoring in 15-25 mph NW winds, wind chills held in single digits. Despite a lack of snow cover, the widespread clear skies and an arctic high overhead will promote lows, even in the Big Cities to fall into the low and mid-teens tonight. Some western burbs of DC, Baltimore, Philly and New York may get into the single digits.

Tomorrow sees a very gradual warm-up despite sunny skies with highs likely to go no better than 21-24, staying in the 10s to the west, with a struggle to zero up over northern New England. A weak upper disturbance floating west to east may bring a coating to perhaps 2 inches of snow across parts of ther Mid-Atlantic including Baltimore and Washington.

Here’s the initial 500mb heights off the ECMWF which show you how low the thicknesses are within eastern trough that’s sliding through. Note the 516 line down to NYC, 522 near Baltimore and 528 south of DC. Impressive.

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Here’s some impressive 850mb temperatures according to the ECMWF for tomorrow afternoon!

Lows tomorrow night dip back into the freezer with a possible low Thursday morning near 10 all the way to Washington DC with lows of 0 to -5 in the Virginia/West Virginia mountains. Boston should fall to 4 or 5F while New England is widely  below -10, perhaps -30s up over northern Maine and New Hampshire.

GFS 2-metre minimum temps for Wed AM.

While the coldest night in this stretch comes Wed-Thurs, our eyes focus on a system that’s now pushing into the Pacific Northwest, this will cross the Northern Tier, perhaps bringing a 1-3 inch swath of snow across the Dakotas, Minnesota through the Lower Lakes before pepping up over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

If you live anywhere from DC to Hartford, there is a decent chance of seeing 3-6 inches of snow. Here’s the very latest GFS projection.

Following this snowstorm which models are rather up and down in terms of both track and snow amounts, another shot of arctic air follows. This could bring even colder air into the Northeast thanks to a fresh snow cover.

For those who don’t enjoy this cold weather, milder air returns by early next week but for a brief time before yet more cold comes down.

500mb heights for next Tuesday off the ECMWF show the ridge back in the east, albeit temporarily.

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