An overnight front brought some snow showers across parts of England and Wales but a much more active front, associated with a deepening Atlantic low will advance across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England tonight into tomorrow. This will likely bring the biggest snowstorm since December 2010 to some, if not many parts.

Right now, it appears Scotland escapes this as the front stays off the coast.

Here’s the GFS pressure chart for tomorrow morning. Note the sub-990mb low pushing across Ireland with a front sliding into the very cold air over the UK. Check out the 1026 high over Scandinavia. With the low over Ireland, high over Norway, this pushes down a northerly flow aloft, feeding the cold air already in place. This is a perfect setup for a big winter event which will set the stage for some very cold weather next week and beyond.

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Here’s the latest GFS snow chart for Fri AM.

Here’s a regional breakdown of what I expect through Friday

Wales

There was a fresh covering of snow overnight across parts of Wales and other areas of the UK but this is nothing compared to what’s coming tonight through Friday.

While the majority of Wales is under an Amber Warning for snow, the Heads of the Valleys and the Brecon Beacons are under a rare RED WARNING given that as much as a foot of snow may fall and if that’s not bad enough, gale-force southeast winds will bring very poor driving conditions with blowing, drifting and blizzard conditions, especially over higher terrain. Wind chills will be significant also with these strong winds.

By tomorrow night I expect a blanket of at least 2 inches across most of Wales with snow even to the coast but there will be areas which pick up 6-8 inches. Schools are likely to close and roads may well be blocked.

Highs tomorrow range from 1C on the coast, -2C inland.

Southwest England

As for England, as the system pushes it’s moisture inland and it hits the cold air, snow breaks out, particularly over east Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Somerset with heavier snow and larger accumulations further inland and away from milder air hovering along the coast. Through Friday, the snow turns back to rain for a good chunk of the southwest but inland parts may continue to see snow showers which will further deepen the covering.

Highs tomorrow 4C on the coast, -1C inland.

GFS snow chart for Fri PM

London, Southeast & E. Anglia

As the front sweeps across southern England through tomorrow, expect snow to fall for much of the day with heavy bursts at times eventually blanket the whole of southern England and may even accumulate right to the coast. This will cause travel disruption and will drop a widespread 2-4, locally 6 inches of snow over upslope areas. Expect even central London to turn white with a couple of inches. While an Amber Warning covers Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire, a Yellow Warning covers the rest of the region.

The Chilterns and Downs will experience the largest totals with some areas perhaps picking up 6 inches.

For East Anglia, a foggy, cold night comes again tonight following downs down to -12C last night. Where clear slots develop, temperatures may get down to similar values but winds increase tonight and this will make the -3 to -6C air temperatures fell brutal.

Much of East Anglia should receive 1-3 inches with locally larger totals over higher ground.

Highs will be very cold at between -1 and -3C.

As well as the snow, remember winds will be strong out of the south and east, this will reduce visibility and will cause blowing and drifting. Feeling very cold.

Midlands, Northern, North East England

A snow band will swing into the Midlands and up into Greater Manchester as well as across Yorkshire but because the main frontal system hangs back to the west over Northern Ireland, there is unlikely to be as much snow for Northern and Northeast England but the south Midlands up through Birmingham may still get a 2-3 inch snow event out of this. Points north and east, perhaps 1-2 inches, say for Liverpool, Manchester, perhaps an inch for York but up over the higher ground, a sizeable snow is still likely with 3-5 inches over the Pennines, North York Moors etc while it’s lesser amounts up into Lancashire and Cumbria.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has been a lot milder than the UK but as the system pushes across NI, Bringing initially rain, the colder air will begin to deepen and this shall turn the rain over the snow. Due to the fact this will hang around throughout Friday, 1-2 inches of snow may fall quite widely and look out for strong southeast winds with gales possible along the coast. Blizzard conditions are possible up over the higher ground.

More Snow For Saturday, Sunday & Next Week

Cloud will continue through much of the weekend for most areas as the frontal boundary sits and dwindles in place. Further snow showers are likely and these may bring more of a covering to Scotland where it will miss out on the main event tomorrow.

Take a look at the projected snow cover/depth for later Saturday.

Throughout next week, the snowpack not only stands strong but it increases in coverage and depth yet again. Take a look at Ireland, wow!

Even way out to next Friday, take a look at the snow cover and depth across not only the UK but Ireland. If this was to hold true, the cold which follows could be quite something.

I can’t quite hear those who kept saying how mild this winter would be now, can you? Although delaying, the pattern I was preaching about since October and earlier is now here and may well be here through early February.

 

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