The next 48 hours will continue to see a stagnant setup over the UK with a lot of cloud, mist and fog and some light rain or drizzle at times. Low pressure to the west and high pressure overhead and to the east will begin to see a west, southwest shift as colder air works in from the east.

By the weekend, we’re going to see two snow potentials 1) with the low and fronts that back out into the Atlantic. Moisture associated may turn from rain to snow as the colder air pushes in. 2) the cold easterly flow which develops may bring snow showers to eastern areas. All in all this won’t be a big snow event but some areas across Southern England, the Midlands, parts of Wales and even Ireland may finish the weekend with a light covering.

Next week looks colder as the trough deepens. Weekend highs will only rise to 1-3C UK-wide with Ireland too only warming to similar values. A breeze and cloud cover is likely to keep temperatures just a degree or two below freezing but it sure will be cold compared to last week. An east wind will keep the eastern snow chances alive through next week.

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This should be of no surprise given that I said way back a couple of weeks ago that with the stratospheric warming, Europe would turn much colder and there was a good chance that the UK would get in on this cold. Further strat warming events are shown by the models and so the later of the month looks to stay on the cold side and even into February I think there is a good chance we should stay cold, not warm.

Keep in mind that any snow that does accumulate is likely to stick around, if enough falls.

Here’s the GFS snow potential for this weekend.

Sat AM

Sat PM

The model does hint at snow, mainly light but perhaps with some heavier bursts during Monday morning. These snows could accumulate across much of Scotland given the air will be cold at near freezing through much of the day.

Across England later Monday.

As for snow depth by 96 hours once these systems have pushed through, they aren’t particularly impressive. I think the dry air flowing in from the continent will absorb and dry out much of the moisture around but this is certainly the type of pattern that can throw surprises.

Moral is that it’s getting a lot colder and through next week, it should remain cold if not get even colder, especially if there is plenty of snow around.

Here’s the latest temp anomalies for the next 8 days.

Days 8-16.. Looks colder!

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