Since the period between Christmas and New Year, I’ve been saying about the coming of cold back into Europe starting in the east. That is now occurring and given the setup, the chance was always reasonable or good for a turn to much colder even over western Europe by midmonth. Everyone is now jumping now that the models are showing it but you have been shown the earlier indicators. Let the hype begin on forums and social networks!
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Many didn’t see any chance but I see facebook is now filling with comments as it becomes obvious. If you’ve been paying attention, for over a week now, I have been saying how the behaviour and not just the intensity of the stratospheric warming was a major signal of change for later in January and I did state that the front running warmth would mislead people into not seeing any chance of cold air returning.
Europe will see some tremendous cold coming through next week with heavy snow which could shut down major European airports. Don’t underestimate how cold Europe may get from this pattern.
As for the UK, look out next weekend onwards as I think snowfall potential will grow considerably.
The latest models continue to show colder times ahead in response to the stratospheric warming. The cold coming from the east will squash the ridge that’s been pumping warmth into the UK from the Azores.
Here’s the 500 mb geopotential heights for Tues.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Sun 13th
Notice as the lower heights cut west towards the UK, the ridge that’s in place get forced over top. This setup should force the NAO towards negative territory as heights are forced to rise to the north and west of the UK and Europe.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Wed 16th
By 240 hours or 10 days from now. Notice the model has one large and cold trough over Europe and all the positive heights are focused out over the North Atlantic. While the UK may still be near to a fightzone and not fully in the cold air, I think with time the models will show the cold backing further and further west with a stronger -NAO.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
If that chart materialises then Europe will turn bitterly cold by midmonth and I think the period from Jan 15-30 could see some very intense cold following initial heavy snows.
As for the UK, while nothing, as usual it may seen.. is written in stone. We live in a part of the world, where it is tougher to get very cold but this setup now well underway is providing a greater than normal chance of seeing some very cold weather including snow by mid and late January. I always said that the worst of the snow and cold would come beyond Christmas/New Year and of course timing of these cold shots is always impossible to predict, days and weeks never mind months in advance.
Let’s check out the longer term CFSv2 and see what it’s showing.
Here’s Jan 5-10. Warm right?
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Jan 13-18 – Here comes the turnaround.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Jan 18-23 – Wow!
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
The core of the cold will stay east of the UK and just how cold we may get in the UK is still unknown. The amount and expanse of snow cover across the UK will determine both severity and likely duration of this cold event.
While a pullback may well occur before the end of January, I think we will see more frequent returns of cold as the pattern could well become more of a lockdown pattern rather than progressive like we saw during the first half of winter.
Bare in mind, that the coldest part of winter is typically LATE January and the mid point is mid-January so the timing of this impending cold couldn’t be better.
Lets hope this materialises!!
More later.. Stay tuned.
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I cant see bitter cold reaching the UK, I think it will become cooler for a few weeks with the odd snow shower Midlands northwards. Using history as a pointer I think we will end up with a similar scenario as last year, where mainland Europe got battered with the cold and the UK was typically mild and dull.
I have been reading posts on a forum from a few people and they have been saying that on some of the latest GFS runs have the Vortex trying to relocate towards Greenland at 100MB. Is this a concern and/or a bad thing.
Many thanks for the update Whilest you are on holiday. Enjoy yourself and fingers crossed the snow is on its way