Well well well, as I expected and hoped, the GFS is now seeing the cold not just for Europe but for the UK too in the 8-16 day. The front running 8, while staying mild, should begin cooling and later next week we should start to loose this warmth. Eastern Europe will turn significantly colder within the next 5-7 days and that cold will expand across most of the mainland within 7-10 days. For us here in the UK, get ready!

This is the initial reaction to the dramatic demise of the polar vortex. The warming of the stratosphere is huge and is likely to drain the arctic into the mid-latitudes. Europe and North America is where all this cold is going.

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The next 5 days sees very strong heights extend from Iberia all the way to Iceland with a warm, moist southwest heat pump that is driving air into a region it doesn’t belong in January but this setup won’t and cannot last. I expect abrupt height falls next week from the east as the coldest air of the season enters Eastern Europe.

The vast stratospheric warming and the type of warming was the key hint and if this did not happen, then I would have been very concerned. If your enjoying this mild, enjoy it while it lasts.

Check out the latest GFS temperature anomalies.

Here’s the next 8 days.

Following 8 days

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