As we progress towards Christmas, for many, perhaps most, the thought of a mild spell will be good news, especially if your heading to the High Street to grab last minute gifts before the big day. A warm run up to Christmas this year will also be great news for travellers. But for those in search of a white Christmas and a repeat of Christmas 2010, I’m affraid the likihood is very low but in saying that, while I recon temperatures in the UK may approach 15C in a few spots by the weekend, I still stand by the recent models which suggest a return to winter in the week between Christmas and New Year.

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The jury is still very much out on the period following Christmas Day and if I am being honest, the most recent runs do appear to have a less cold look.

As you can see from the above ECMWF chart, there is a rather strong Iberian high poking it’s way north up into the UK during Sunday, this setup will promote a continued cold pattern from St Petersburg down to Kiev but between the 23rd and 26th, modelling shows both a ridge over Scandinavia and over Iberia breaking down and the cold that’s currently locked over far eastern Europe not only migrates west into Scandinavia but with an eastward migrating Iberian high, this would support sharp height falls over the UK without that high being there and if you’ve got cold air in place over Scandinavia, the path of leat resistance might be over the UK. At least that’s what the ECMWF had the other day.

The most recent runs still show that eastward migration of the Iberian high but the trough which is then allowed to drop down over the UK is less deep with a flatter look which I don’t quite believe. Despite thickness down to 522 or 528, the 850 temps are not all that cold. While the deterministic backs off from the cold, the control delays the cold.

While I believe a colder period is coming towards late next week following a the Pre-Christmas warmth, the models are as always providing little guidance.

Check out the ECMWF control for Christmas Eve below. Pretty mild but not as mild as what it has for the 22nd and 23rd where it shows the 5C line at 850 nearly up as far as the England-Scotland border with the 10C line trying to push into the South Coast of England!

Between the 26-28, the control has a battle with the 0C line with no real cold reaching the UK until nearer New Year. It SHOULD be much colder by New Year.

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