There is good agreement that the next 4 days will be cold throughout the UK and Ireland thanks to a high out over the Atlantic and a low to the east over Europe. A northerly flow will feed some of the coldest air to date down into a high that will dominate much of the upcoming week over the UK and Ireland.

This will support daytime highs, which from Inverness to Carlisle, maybe as far south as Manchester, will struggle to reach freezing by Tuesday or Wednesday. Even Birmingham down to London may have a tough time hitting 2C. Frost will become a 24-hour feature and most parts away from the immediate coast will stay at or below freezing for the majority of a few days this week.

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With cold days comes very cold night’s under clear skies and light winds. We may see northern and central towns and cities dip towards -6 or -7C with rural areas pushing -10C in parts. Hard to severe frosts will become an issue by midweek as the depth of cold will have an accummulative effect. The colder the night the harder it is for the air to warm by day and the lower the daytime high, the colder the next night could be. Sheltered Highland or Southern Upland Glens may push -13 or -14C by mid week with even parts of central England and the classic cold spots may push -9 or -10C. Shap, Cumbria and Benson, Oxfordshire may be contenders for England’s cold spots. Parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic may push -7 or -8C.

The good things despite the cold there will be brilliantly sunny days. You will need to wrap up warm.

I am not going to deny that models have a warmer look to the end of this week and yes, the week ahead is not favourable for snow except for eastern parts. However, without trying to come across as though I am adament this sustained/locked down pattern will happen, I still believe there is plenty more changes to come with the models and we could well see a view surprises still before the cold is suppose to breakdown by the end of the week.

Take a look at the latest 168 hour average temp, valid till next Sunday. This is a cold looking map..

Below is the 8-16 day, looking brutal across eastern Europe extending back through Poland, Germany towards the Lwo Countries, Yes it does look warmer for the UK but like I say, this could change through this week. Modelling is still widely all over the place and will continue to be through the early part of the week.

I will say that if this cold spell doesn’t work out or it is cold but comes and goes, I will and always admit when I am wrong. I am not a forecaster that will deny but I do take real pride in my work and like I’ve said already, have spent a very long time building this forecast for winter up.

Another thing I wish to add is that this is just the ‘start’ to winter idea and I never ever forecasted cold to last for months or the entire winter. I always said there would be a break at sometime but exactly when that would be was very much unknown. I never at any point called for a winter which would be cold throughout. I think some out there seem to think that when it warms up whether it’s at the end of the upcoming week or whether it’s nearer Christmas, that my entire winter forecast has been wrong, that is very much incorrect. I have always said that I believed a cold mid to late December was possible but a respite would come before the end of the month. I still stand by my forecast that January is likely to be the coldest and harshest month but December could pack a punch for a few weeks prior to Christmas. If you are unsure of anything I am writing here, you can go look at what was said and even go back to previous posts that date back to Sept. I also said that February and March may also bring it’s fair share of winter.

So, to conclude. This week is going to be cold, it won’t be a big snow producer and yes, models show a warming trend by the close of the week, but to reiterate, I ‘believe’ that we could see changes back towards colder as we progress through this week. I still believe in my forecast but if I see that it will not happen, then I will say so.

Interestingly, check out the latest ECMWF Deterministic snowfall chart for Europe by next Sunday (174 hrs), notice the snow it has for large parts of Ireland and the UK.

Here’s a rather mild looking upper chart and 850 temps for 168 hrs next Sunday.

I think there’s still lots on the table.

More tomorrow.

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