Check this out at 240 hrs off the ECMWF Deterministic. The control run is much more favourable for sustained blocking north and west of the UK which would allow the cold off Europe to push west and cover the UK and Ireland and then trap it there. The ECMWF Deterministic shows a push of mild off the Atlantic followed by a westward retreat of Atlantic air and the flood of Siberian air into the UK.

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All in all, the models are swaying more and more towards a colder look and a sustained period of cold too. Don’t undermine the importance of the European snowpack’s role in providing us with plenty of ‘proper’ cold. Without it being very white and therefore very cold, we cannot get ‘very cold’. Also, the stronger the cold, the more chance it has at pushing out the mild. The current setup is a perfect example as the cold remains relatively shallow and so Atlantic air has plenty of atmosphere to work with over top of this lower level cold. A stronger pool of cold is deeper and therefore it cannot penetrate.

Check out this 500mb geopotential height chart for 240 hrs. Note the major blocking high north of the Uk and Europe with low heights in the mid-latitudes. Perfect look for not only cold but prolonged cold too. If this plays out. There should be a decent snowpack over the UK and the majority of Europe just like we had back in 09-10 and 10-11.

Thought you may also like to see this too.

Here is the temperature anomalies through Dec 11.

From 13 through 20th, Wow! and yes that’s the GFS.. Note the red on the top left hand side indicating the blocking high up over Greenland extending across the north!!

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