There’s no denying that models are showing mild interuptions to a colder pattern but as I sift through the data, the period we are heading into is much colder and I do believe we have both cold and snow on the way. Exact timing is the issue and yes, it will be broken up by ‘brief’ milder spells. Remember back to what I have said all along.

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1) The models ARE GOING TO JUMP AROUND AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALTERS. It’s hard to imagine the scale of change going on all around us.

2) The cold would come at the close of Nov (it”s still only Nov 26) and really it’s BEYOND Dec 1, possibly week 2 where some real cold settles in.

3) I also stated that the cold is likely to come in waves with clashes of mild Atlantic air, not in the form of one giant wall of cold.

4) The worst of winter (worst of the cold/snow) will be in January, NOT Dec.

5) I do expect a flip perhaps mid month to a milder period but that idea remains very ubcertain at this time.

Clearly, there are challenging forecasting days ahead and I stand by my idea. The next 5 days will see a downward trend in temperature as the final low exits the UK and winds turn northeasterly, drawing arctic air down. By the end of this week, many will struggle to reach freezing with nights in between growing increasingly colder.

High pressure with the core to the west of the UK and low pressure to the east will bring north to northeast winds south over the UK and Ireland, this will transport a very different air mass down but the problem for snow lovers is that this flow is moisture starved but parts of the UK could see snow and not just at high levels. I believe snows may break out in eastern areas if we get a cold enough flow to blow across the North Sea. These cold winds can draw moisture off the North Sea and therefore produce snow, we saw this occur in Dec 2010.

While days are cold, I expect lows away from towns and cities to fall towards -6C or lower with increasingly severe frosts by late week as the air mass grows colder. The persistent N, NE flow will cooling the atmosphere and as it cools, days become colder, nights very cold. These colder nights will slow daytime warming and it becomes much more of a struggle for the atmosphere to heat the lower levels when start-off temperatures are this low.

Let’s take a look at both GFS and ECMWF charts off AccuWeather Pro. Next week does remain uncertain but a heck of a lot can change between now and this weekend.

Here’s the latest GFS 850 heights/emps and winds.

48

72

90

114

126

 

144

 

ECMWF 850mb Heights/temps, winds

48

72

96

120

138

162

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