The wheels appear to be in motion now for big changes coming. Tired of all this STORMY hardship? Don’t fret, the end is in sight.

That being said, we all face a rough next 24 hour period. The much anticipated, energy-loaded frontal system associated with a sub-974 mb low will sweep across a saturated Ireland and Britain tonight and tomorrow and as stated last weekend, this will be the worst of all three systems to impact us this week. Why? The saturation brought by the previous systems combined with very heavy rains forced along a strong front means a near ‘worst-case’ in terms of flooding potential.

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The other aspects which make this a real concern is the fact the high centred over Russia is strengthening, so the eastward progression of the front crossing the UK is slowed down.

The model has been persistent with showing high convective energy on the tail of the front. The slowing down of the front as it crosses Ireland and the UK and the fact the pressure field is tightening (excellerating the SW flow), means all this added fuel has time to run the front up into the UK, bringing higher rainfall totals.

Once this has all cleared out, another system works NE eventually reaching the south of England this weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure begins to expand north from the central Atlantic and eventually links up with a high over Greenland.

By Sunday, Monday, the ridge linking the central Atlantic with Greenland has now intensified to 1030 mb while the weekend low, impacting the Southern UK is exiting east. The high to the west blocks Atlantic air moving east while the eastward exiting low generates a stringing north, northeast wind to blow over the UK and Ireland. This would mark the initial arrival of the cold.

What’s worth noting is the low which is near SE coast of England. Moisture associated with this system may join forces with the cold N,NE flow to present the first snow prospects.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Later Monday

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