I thought I would cover a little on the warm AMO that we’re seeing and just how strong it has become. This is a key driver in our weather these days not just locally surrounding the basin itself but globally. This warm AMO is controlling or at least is having a strong influence on many different aspects of the weather and our recent climatic pattern.

On a hemispheric scale, this years AMO warmth is having incredible effect on both the arctic sea ice and the hurricane season and on a longer term scale, it’s influencing our summers as well as winters. It’s probably the strongest warm AMO in it’s current 60 year cycle. And who said the oceans don’t play a key role in climate right?

Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt Can Be Blamed On Warm AMO

Ok, firstly, the arctic sea ice. The melt which has been deemed unprecidented by media and other various outlets is due to the warm waters in the North Atlantic and surrounding Greenland but this happens during the ‘peak’ of a warm AMO, it happened back in the 1950s when there was photographic evidence of a submarine emerging in WATER, not ice at the North Pole.

The incredible anomalies which can be seen in the chart above shows just how warm the waters are compared to normal in the far north. The AMO is driving the ‘super above normal’ waters throughout the Arctic Ocean but of course the waters over this ocean would be so far above normal given the lack of ice where solar radiation can penetrate and heat. Had there been ice, no sun gets to this water below.

Warm Anomalies Have Pushed Greatest Tropical Cyclone Intensity Further North This Year

As for the hurricane season. It’s very very interesting how there has been no hurricane develop within the main development region, the normal region within the deep tropics. This is due to the fact the waters further north are warmer and within the deep tropics there not so warm. Of course dry air and shear has played a major inhibiting rtole this year too but waters haven’t been significantly warm either. Always keep in mind that the role of a tropical cyclone is taking heat away from the tropicsand redistributing it up over the temperate regions. The further north heat means further north tropical activity and the greater intensity of storms is also further north too.

Take Newfoundland, Canada for an example. This relatively far north latitude has been hit two years running by strong tropical cyclones given their latitude. Ignor hit last year as a Cat 1 hurricane while just days ago, Leslie hit as a borderline tropical-hurricane. The abnormal warmth within these waters, due to the warm AMO has meant tropical systems are staying stronger for longer as compared to normal.

Combo of Warm AMO And Cold PDO Makes For Dreary UK Summers

The warm North Atlantic waters tend to feed greater amounts of moisture into low pressure systems which form along the jet stream but what is most interesting in recent years is the increase in rainfall over the UK. Why might that be? Well after the PDO turned cold in 2007, the rainfall increased here in the UK and gone where the warm, dry summers across the board. Yes both summers of 2010, 2011 where dry in the south, this was due to the La Nina but in the North it was very wet and throughout the UK it was cool.

Interesting Corrolation Between El Nino & Increased Summer Rains

Since 2007 when there was a super wet summer, this can likely be attributed to the oncoming El Nino just like we saw this year following the back to back La Nina, the overall trend has been that of cool and wet ever since 2007 here in the UK. A lot of this is due to the warm AMO. An increase in jet stream winds may be contributed to the flip from warm to cold Pacific but the increase in rainfall is likely down to the warmth of the North Atlantic especially when there’s an El Nino. Combine the two cold PDO and warm AMO and we’ve got that increase in cool, wet and gloomy UK summers which look like they’ll persist for the next few years until the AMO flips cold.

Warm AMO Tends To Lead To More High Latitude Winter Blocking

The warm North Atlantic has been corrolated well with the tendency for more blocking, i.e, high pressure over Greenland and this tends to lead to more troughiness and colder weather for the central and eastern US as well as Western Europe. However, it’s really once the Pacific went cold and La Ninas became more dominant, El Ninos less so and weaker, that we’ve seen colder times on both continents either side of the Atlantic.