Since retiring for the night and getting up this morning, there has been little change in Isaac. Max sustained winds remain at 65 mph with pressure slightly lower at 990. However, recent sat images has showed a more healthy looking system with a more concentric look with blow up of deep convection and even what could appear to be a new center forming underneath this new convective burst. Even though the HNC now as a 90 mph rather than 100 mph storm crossing the Louisiana coast early Wednesday, there is a heck of a lot now on the table here with models now converging on a track which takes it a little too close to New Orleans for comfort.

Below is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. Notice it takes it almost directly into New Orleans.

Evacuations orders are now in place to visitors and residents along the Gulf Coast with a state of emergency declared for all of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama with New Orleans included.

Here’s the latest spray in models. Notice the general consenses taking this storm almost directly into NOLA.

The thing is, if this system is showing true signs of getting it’s act together, then it may not take much to wind this storm up over the high heat of the Gulf. Especially now that it’s taking more of a westward track out into the central Gulf where waters are even warmer and deeper. Keep in mind that cyclones churn cooler waters from below the warm layer but if you’ve warmth down to beyond 50 metres then there’s no cool water to churn up and so there is optimum fuel for intensification.

There’s likely to be less and less dry air as the circulation heads further out over the open Gulf and less dry air and shear along with that fuel beneath, there’s no reason this thing can’t get it’s act together and fast.

An Ivan-like track straight into Mobile Bay is still on the table and still possible at becoming a strong Cat 2 or 3. I believe there’s more chance now at a 3 if this system tracks further west and closer to NOLA as it taps that slightly higher heat content.

Continued Flooding over Florida today

While the core of Isaac spins WNW away from Florida, there is no room for complacency. While a 1-3 foot surge could still flood the west coast, convection continues stream to across the state from off the Atlantic out of the SE. This will keep those heavy, tropical downpours going throughout today. Already we’ve seen upward of 6-9 inches of rain over South Florida with gusty 40-60 mph winds.