Since last weekend I have been shooting for a high of between 30-32C in London. I continue to stand by that number. As is frequently the case, the BBC is playing catch up with their numbers as they started the week at around 20-21C and now their at 27C. Still too low but as it nears realtime, so the sharp rise occurs.
The key isn’t getting the number correct but seeing what’s in front and by using the model with knowledge and understanding of the weather and how the pattern works, you get a pretty good idea what can happen some 5-7 days out. That’s not always the case of course but in this case I’ve felt strongly about this one. Go with any model and they can be way off with the forecast. You only have to look at the GFS with the US Plains heat these days which is giving well below normal when it’s clearly going to be above or well above.
The past 3 days here has been glorious with temps around 21C. I went for an improving picture with warming trend following an unsettled Monday. That has happened and I still stand by my forecast for 25-27C in parts of Scotland while it gets to between 27-32C this weekend from Manchester to Gravesend, Kent.
With surface heights at 1028 and upper heights of 584dc, that’s a good setup for plenty of warmth at 850 which should provide a pretty good cap to which should surpress cloud formation. This atmosphere supports largescale sinking.
While maximum highs are likely restricted to around 29-30C with purely the warm air mass in place, it will be down to wind which would allow numbers to rise into the low 30sC. Any significant warm surge occurs in the SE of England when there’s heat wave conditions to the south where the air is flowing from and all it takes is a decent SW flow to blow from Southern France to SE and eastern England for the high to hit 32C.
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