>Ok, as you’ll know it’s nice and cool out there again this morning and as FORECASTED BY MYSELF this forecast for February on the whole was CORRECT in terms of a cold period AND that this month would be colder than normal with frequent chances of snow. Snows are in the forecast on and off and what I cant hammer home enough is where my ideas have stemed from.
I did have a comment from a person saying that he greatly dissagrees with my forecast being accurate, well, what was stated, is that I said we would have TWO WEEKS of snow cover…
That is garbage, i’m sorry but if you want to hit someone, GET YOUR FACTS RIGHT FIRST, OK?
This month is well on target for MORE NIGHTS BELOW FREEZING THAN JANUARY. We’re pushing 15 nights for this month, January was 17 nights and we’re pushing 60 nights below freezing for meteorological winter (period from Dec 1 to Feb 28). but of course the big difference is the colder days and VERY COLD nights back in late December and early January beats this months cold in the severity aspect.
This is late season cold and actually is becoming impressive with cooler than normal days and well below normal nights.
The last time ive seen every night in a forecast below freezing was back during the brutal cold spell earlier in winter, we yet again have another forecast calling for every night below freezing and days which are struggling to hit 40! This is now late season cold and any sunshine is now warming us much more efficiently than back in late Dec/early Jan. Cold air masses where stronger earlier thanks to a greater expanse of deep cold and low angled, weak sunlight.
What many don’t understand is, where im getting my thoughts and ideas on. IT’S ALL ABOUT WHAT’S HAPPENING OUTSIDE THE BOX.. What’s driving the weather across the whole hemisphere, where are the cold and warm pools? how does the seasonal advancement effect air masses & upper winds differently etc etc. If you want to correct me or dissagree with me publicly, then feel free but please, please get links to what ive written before the present me with an issue with anything I say, thanks.
More later.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
>I publicly apologise for my previous comment which has angered you so much. It does appear in my mind that I have confused your prediction of 2-3 weeks of cold, with that of 2-3 weeks of snow cover. However, I don't see how you can quantify the accuracy of your forecast. I would like to know your formula for this quantitatitve measure. Do you have an uncertainty for this estimate of accuracy? I was intending on going to blackpool with the dogs in midsummer. Is it likely to be sunny in July down that way? Or should I expect the occassional spell of rain?
>I'm not sure about this argument with the rogue comment merchant. I remember you saying that winter part two would arrive, don't know how much detail you gave.
I think you're finding, Mark, that not everyone can be happy with forecasts. Weather is all about opinions, what is cold for some is warm for another. What is important for some is irrelevant to another, I cared about the Winter Olympics weather, you cared about snow showers in USA. It's your blog, you can write what you want, I just had to wait and see if there was enough snow for the downhill slalom.