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I would like to once again wish everyone of my readers a very Merry Christmas and hope you all have a joyful Christmas spent with your friends and family.
I was delighted to awaken and pull back the curtains to a beautiful White Christmas. It was beautiful with an average of about 4 inches covering the ground, Persistent snow 4-5 days ago and then cold air, allowed no decay in our snowpack, allowing for the perfect Christmas Morning sight!
It is, at the moment cloudy but skies are brightening and we should enjoy some periods of afternoon sunshine, the high should stay below freezing after what was a somewhat milder overnight thanks to cloudy skies. What a contrast to yesterday morning. I was out much of yesterday morning from 3.05am, as myself and another guy drove a truck from the icy depot in central Glasgow of Port Dundas down to an industrial estate just outside Kilmarnock. We were the “feeder truck” to other trucks which were running low on milk, our purpose was to supply them with more milk. It was somewhat of a challenge driving on what has become the norm these days, Icy roads, but standing in the back of a trailer in temperatures in the low teens, certainly makes you toughen up somewhat. I love winter’s snow and cold, but it certainly was nice to get into a warm cab in between trucks coming and going. What becomes tough is not so much the weather but when simple mechanical features start to fail when temperatures fall. Batteries die, tail lift buttons freeze up, Car and Cab heaters take longer to heat you up etc etc. Transport starts to break down as railway points fail or even salt trucks start to struggle to keep up with a longer than normal period of time of cold weather. We are simply wimpy these days after over 10 years of warmth that has dominated our winter pattern here in Scotland and across the British Isles. But like stated last winter and as I built up this season’s forecast, last winter may have been a taste of things to come in 2009-10. That appears to become more apparent as Scotland apprarently is enduring it’s worst period of winter weather in 20 years and the worst period of winter weather in the run up to Christmas in 14 years. Yes, December 1995 was the last truely harsh winter period for Scotland.
So far, I am becoming ever more impressed by the pattern we have been locked in for around a week now. But for my forecast to hold true, we have still a lot more winter to come with likely the worst still to come.
JANUARY 2010 FORECAST FOR GREAT BRITAIN.
WORST OF WINTER STILL AHEAD OF US, DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT COLD-SNOW PERIOD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DECEMBER 2009
It must be said that Britain as a whole is a place that isn’t in the middle of a continent and is surrounded by warmer-than-normal waters and with a persistent period of mild winters that began as the era of the 70s ended and the 80s began it is really difficult to see how a severe winter could come and hold for a prolonged period of time when 9 out of 10 years display perhaps 80% mild weather and 20% cold or even a little colder weather during a typical winter since 1990 or earlier.
Last winter brought 3 significantly longer (surprising to me) periods of below normal cold and snow. But I use the term “significant and long” in a relative sense and only comparing to RECENT WINTERS, say since 2000 because winters back in the 60s and 70s in Britain make last winter and even this current spell of below normal weather and widespread snow cover appear somewhat timid.
Some sources whether it be numerical modeling or indipendant forecasters suggest a significant cold period ahead. I being one of those indipendant forecasters stated a while back of a brutal January… I stand by that as of today, Christmas Day that we STILL have a likely chance of cold and snow which will dominate January. The snow now on the ground may very well stay on the ground from now until the later part of January… If so, that would be amazing to say the least since this would be something never seen in my lifetime.
I predict now that New Years Day could be one of the coldest in years for both the Eastern US and UK. Between Jan 1-10 a major snowstorm will strike much of Scotland including the populated Central Lowlands with 6-14 inches of snow, all but crippling the country’s transport network. Behind this snowstorm which will develop thanks to an influx of mild, moist Atlantic air colliding with a discharge of cold, dry continental over the country. As the snowstorm leaves, a MAJOR COLD PERIOD will settle in and which will bring day after day below freezing across the country and nights that regularly fall well into the teens and single digits in rural areas but at it’s worst we may see both Glasgow and Edinburgh near record levels with readings that could rival the very worst cold ever recorded… Both may see nights under clear skies, Arctic high pressure in place and a snowpack over a foot across a widespread area and temperatures that hit -15C or 5 degrees Fahrenheit…
A milder period may not occur like seen in the recent warm past.. The mildest period may actually be between Christmas Day and New Year, this pattern I have 70% confidence in occuring in the time frame I am suggesting but I have 80% confidence that it will octually occur but may be slightly later, perhaps allowing for a longer “mild period”. A mild period being near normal temperatures, with periods the major winter weather not occuring until beyond the 7 of January….
England will also endure bitter times ahead with frequent snows and ever colder days and nights. The period between Jan 10 and January 25 may be the heart of the worst we shall see this winter with London, Birmingham to Manchester seeing significant snowfalls..
As for February, well we shall see just how cold January will be before looking at February.. By then you’ll be hoping it’s warmer as many rivers, lakes, lochs and streams freeze. Could we really see the Thames and Clyde than flow through the great city’s of London and Glasgow ice up over the next 2-6 weeks??
UNITED STATES TO SEE HISTORIC COLD
BOSTON TO WASHINGTON DC TO FALL BELOW ZERO
As forecasted back in summer, I firmly believe a MAJOR Arctic Outbreak is kocking on the door of the US EAST of the Mississippi. A cold not seen in perhaps 20 to as much as 50 years!!
Whilst the East grows ever colder, ridging and milder air will begin to grow up the Western flank of the North America continent bringing a winter break to much of the West and Alaska. More snowstorms may hit the East Coast and they may actually pull in some of the really cold Arctic air as lows spin up the East Coast and ever codler air sweeps in behind these departing low pressure systems.
At some point in January I believe we shall see the I-95 between DC and Boston drop below zero for the first time since 1994…
More on these ideas coming up..
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Email me at [email protected]
>Mark – Agree we are in for a very cold spell – my father says the pattern is similar to 1947, so could be set for 6 weeks of freezing temps – but he is prone to a little exageration. We'll see how it pans out! All the best – will keep following your blog until you get it entirely wrong 😉 Merry Xmas and happy Hogmanay. Perry