>Up and over the high latitudes of our planet, daylight is becoming more and more absent, whilst snow cover more extensive and ice locks up rivers, inland seas and lakes until next spring. When the stage is set with loss of incoming solar energy to the surface and expansive snow and ice covers a vast territory, then the cold air is allowed to intensify and expand upwards into the highest upper reaches of the atmosphere and outwards across the North Pole and southbound until it reaches the jet stream. Currently we have a locked or bottled up cold vortex that’s spinning over the North Pole as higher pressures at the mid-latitudes hold the coldest air over the pole and storms are blowing up at the thermal contrast zone which at present covers much of the continents of Europe and North America. Due to the bottling up or restriction of Arctic air at the sub-Arctic or Arctic Circle level, heat over the equatorial belt is allowed to be pushes north as strong storm systems entrain this warmth which aids powerful systems. At this point in the season, Arctic air is strong enough and warmth that is pumped north is the perfect two ingredients to generate the very strongest of low’s that run in between these two conflecting thermal contrasts.

We are seeing major storms effect the Western and Eastern United states as well as a major windstorm that’s just impacted the southern portion of the United Kingdom which generated 60-70 mph winds across the Greater London area and much of the densely populated southern half of England and even 100 mph wind gusts that were reported in Kent in southeast England. Ironically here, little but a breeze was blowing but extremely heavy showers did spin up from the south, likely a sideswpie of the main low that spun it’s rrath across the southern half of the country and even generated thunderstorms in London as well as a tornado in Essex.

The windstorms of the mid-latitudes grow in essence with the growing contrast between increasingly expansive polar cold and the still warm subtropics. Right where the heart of the hemisphere’s population is, the fight zone of storminess is right now. With this fight comes the pressure on the jet stream to blow harder to counteract the imbalance of atmosphere. The jet speeds up in attempt to find balance. A much warmer overall atmosphere like during the summer, does not create big low pressure storm-centers, except from hurricanes that form in the low latitudes of the tropics and subtropics.

As November grows longer, we see the fierce cold over much of Asia grow stronger but also is beginning to push the polar vortex back across the pole and eastern Siberia into Alaska and NW Canada as the progression of the season means the building cold must find path of least resistance, that being the North American subarctic of Alaska and Canada. As the positive Arctic Oscillation stands firm and the cold is blocked from pushing south and has nowhere to go, it intensifies where it is and now that Alaska and northern Canada is getting in on the act of the Arctic as the cold that has essentially is filling the bathtub over the Pole and Asia, it is now backtracking on itself over the pole and out of eastern Siberia and across the Bering Sea into NW North America. From -40s over the Interior of Alaska will soon become -50s. This will force the positive AO to work harder, Atlantic and Pacific storms will intensify and therefore I expect a series of major wind events for both Britain and the West Coast of North America as the hemispheric pattern progressions into winter over the next few weeks as Fairbanks and the Yukon may experience “highs in the 40s below” and lows that drop below -50 degrees. At the same time, Portland to the central British Columbia coast gets hammered by gales that with some systems may feel more like a hurricane. The same story will be the case from Balboa to Paris to Glasgow along with heavy rains and heavy seas..

Turkey and eastern Europe to soon feel Bitterly Cold

I recieved an email recently from one of my readers in Istanbul, Turkey asking me about the weather forecast for Turkey. Like I stated in my winter forecast for Europe which so far, has remained accurate in my ideas.
Asia’s major Cold is going to start backing westward (but remaining every bit as cold in China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia and up through Siberia through November and soon the milder or near normal temperatures across Turkey will go below normal with a late November blast of Bitter Arctic air. I am not sure yet when the major flip to a negative Arctic Oscillation will be but this does not mean truely bitter air won’t start to make it’s push westward as the Arctic air pressurises the blocking higher pressures over the mid-latitudes or the zonal (maritime) flow that’s pushing off the Atlantic and UK across Europe’s land mass.

For you folks in Turkey, Ukraine, Romania etc will see colder and colder air that will spin off the main cold core that’s been centered over the heart of landlocked northern China, Mongolia and Siberia for the past month and this will intensify mainly from “Late November” through Mid-December… The heart of your winter (Turkey, including Istanbul) may see the WORST OF YOUR WINTER during late November through December and peaking by a period from December 20th through January 10. With a moderation in the coldest air by early to mid-January.

US AND UK TO EXPERIENCE MILD PACIFIC.ATLANTIC AIR THROUGH THE REST OF NOVEMBER

Here in Scotland and England, Wales and N.Ire/Ireland the storminess currently effecting us will continue and we may see increasingly stronger storms as the cold continues to grow over the pole, Asian landmass, Alaska and Canada..
The major wind event that has just pushed across the South of England may be a sign of things to come as storms start to form a train in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For us here in the central Belt of lowland Scotland, major lows may bring persistent heavy rains and high winds for the next several weeks. Windstorms will also increase along the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast down to central coastal California..

As for the first real blast of Arctic origin air, rather than Pacific-polar air that’s getting entrained by Pacific storm centers that progress west to east across the continent will be as the commencement of a “flip” in the AO begins which I believe may happen in the early part of December. From eastern WA and Oregon, across Montana and down to northern Arizona, New Mex and Texas may see a brutal commencement to December with the core of cold centered over Montana! Regina, Saskatoon and Calgary may experience -40s at night and places such as West Yellowstone may bottom out close to 50 below.. Denver and Billings may take a run at 15 to 20 below zero.. Salt Lake City may see their coldest in many years with a run at 5 to 10 below there..

Folks “east” of the Mississippi will experience a still mild pattern and even some warm temps as the deepening western trough leads to a eastern ridge but the growing western cold will lead to a speedly end in sight to mild for East Coast and Coastal plain residents. By mid-December both Western Europe and Eastern US residents will see increasing cold at the same time the brunt of eastern Europe’s winter and the core of cold pushes east across the USA and west across Europe!! This sets the stage to a “lock down pattern” not a progressive one.

What I mean by that is. The worst of winter may occur for eastern Europe (including Istanbul, Turkey) and western USA as the stratosphere warms and the flip occurs over the Pole. The mean trough will form over the Eastern third of the United States by Christmas with hints of what is coming their way by December 15th-18th. Same will be seen in western Europe including here in Scotland as snows fly and accummulations begin.. What’s build NOW in Asia and over the Pole is what’s ahead LATER down the road here in Britain and in the Eastern third of the USA..

ISSUES I HAVE WITH MINNEAPOLIS AND CHICAGO’S WINTER!

Despite my thoughts of a “milder overall winter” for the upper Midwest and N. Plains. I am a little nervous about calling for a “mild winter” for Minneapolis and Chicago. Despite the idea that typically the past two winters have been severe for these two Midwest centers with a La Nina pattern in the Pacific, the way things have unfolded with the weather pattern since 2008, I am feeling more and more cautious about calling for a “mild” winter and I really do believe a harsh December is on the way as the blossoming of cold pushes into the Rockies, this eastward oush of this cold may bring a harsh month for both cities including brutal cold and snow. Less snowfall for Chicago for sure this winter than the last two but as for Minneapolis, well their snowfall hasn’t been as much above normal like Chicago’s has and Minneapolis may be close to that dividing line between milder and colder during the heart of winter, As for temps, these two cities may end nearer normal than above with a high possibility of prolonged cold and below normal temps between mid-December and early January before the warm pool takes over Midwest airspace in early to mid-January.

The western US won’t see milder I believe until later December and that could be a departure of the “well below normal” only by mid and late December and the actual flip to “above normal” may actually be later than many think, therefore normal temps and cold could linger into early or even mid-January even though the heart of the cold vortex may be well east and brutalizing the East Coast from Pittsburgh to New York City… February will be I believe the “warm month” for the West whilst early January, perhaps 5th onwards the worst of winter will slam an area from Memphis-Atlanta to Philadelphia-Hartford following a major snowstorm from Jan 5th through February 5th, a return to “sustained normal or above normal” won’t occur until mid-February for this Appalachain to Atlantic seaboard region!!!

Whilst the worst of winter hits in mid-January when highs struggle to hit 10 in NYC, Philly and mid-teens all the way to DC and Richmond and nights that drop below zero from Boston to DC’s south suburbs. For Denver, Salt Lake and Billings, they may be basking in record warmth as well as up in Fairbanks, Anchorage and across into the Yukon… A period of 3-4 weeks of a locked down deep cold period is very likely from the Misissippi river to Mid-Atlantic with the core set up over the central Appalachains.

3-Major snowstorms to effect a region from Atlantic to Boston. One occuring between December 10-18, the second, Jan 1-10 and the last, Feb 1-18..

Well, that is more thoughts on my winter ideas for you to see… I shall talk more on snowfall ideas and actual highest and lowest temps for a seclection of cities, later!

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

If you have any questions regarding these points made, please feel free to email me at [email protected]