>-By Mark Vogan

Severe Winter of Record Cold and Snow from southern Appalachians to southern New England. Rockies and West to see winter’s worst by New Year.

Worst of Winter for spine of Appalachians to I-95 corridor, Appalachians to witness a record snow year as well as Atlanta, Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Trenton, Newark, New York City to Hartford to experience above to well above normal snowfall with between 2-3 large Nor’Easter’s that could grind the BOSWASH corridor to a halt..

Central and Northern Rockies to receive over 80% of their snow by Christmas and New Year.

With the weak to possibly moderate El Nino forming in the eastern equatorial Pacific the trough now over the Western US will migrate eastwards as the Pacific warming feedback pushes the trough east, and gives way to a warm Pacific/Great Basin high. Before then I expect to see abundant moisture drive into the West Coast between Crescent City, Calif and the Canadian border.
I also expect a Major Arctic Outbreak sometime in early to mid-December that will be the opening sequence of things to come further east 2-3 weeks later as the flip of the Arctic Oscillation kicks in!

If the atmospheric mechanics do what I expect them to do, then we should see a milder but stormy pattern through November with no real Arctic air over US airspace but ever chillier air will become entrained in the strong Pacific flow as strong low’s spin off the Pacific and pull down some cold Canadian air, thus giving way to a possible series of wind, rain and snowstorms for the Rockies which will drive snow totals above to well above normal over the northern and central Rockies through much of December. This will bring false hopes of another bumper year for ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest and down across the Lake Tahoe area, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho.

However, along with the active southern branch jet, the polar jet will become pressured with the increasing cold over the pole and therefore it will begin to drive further and further south through December. What could start warm, dry and mostly sunny for Southern California, southern Utah and Nevada may become increasingly stormier and the polar jet is oushes south into the Four Corners as a major Arctic high drops down and brings frigid cold with it, only to then rebound north all the way to Alaska as the warm pool builds up the western flank of the continent, the High pressure enduced by the El Nino influence will split the jet, driving the polar or northern branch up into Alaska, whilst the southern branch is driven straight into central and southern California.

At the same time, a major cool down will impact the eastern Plains and Eastern Seaboard whilst out West it’s warm-up time and possibly a long goodbye to true winter after a frigid blast in mid-December. A major push of very mature Arctic air is likely if we see strong warming up into Alaska and the pole which will shoot the Polar Vortex into an area between the Lakes and Boston. It all depends on whether the atmosphere has enough push to them pull if you catch my drift.

The major flip I expect to begin will be at a point when the Arctic can no longer hold all the cold and the push is made by the Western ridge. Between December 18th and February 1, I believe cold we see lockdown by the Arctic high as it settles and remains there for a prolonged period of time as I believe the North Atlantic Oscillation will turn strongely negative as a large, blocking high builds into Greenland. This huge, atmoospheric transition will set the stage for a fierce period of winter in the highly populated and industrialised regions of the hemisphere and will remain firm with possibly as long as a 2 week period in which NYC, Philadelphia, Baltimore all the way to Washington may remain BELOW FREEZING and nights persistently down in the 10s, even 5-8 nights which could plummet into the single digits, sub zero wind chills will also be a major issue.
All this will occur on the backside of a major East Coast snowstorm that may dump 1-2 feet from the Carolina Mtns to New England..

I again will say this, I believe snow cover will be in abundance across much of the Plains states and Eastern third, down as far south as north Georgia. The amount of cold covering a region from the eastern Rockies to the beaches of Jersey will be quite amazing and with lots of snow, this cold will be severe.

Atlanta with a coating to as much as 3 inches may remain on the ground for several days, thus making it hard for them to warm above freezing one or two days this winter as the Arctic front sits along the Gulf Coast. Nights may drop into single digits even in Atlanta. And below zero in the north Georgia Mtns. Northern Alabama and Mississippi may also drop to low single digits to below zero in a couple of spots.

What I am a little unsure about is the Northern Plains, say from Fargo to Chicago. Though they may see above normal in the winter as a whole, I believe a major cold blast is likely with a run at 2-3 days failing to hit zero and nights that drop towards -20. Chicago also may take a run at -10. Less snowfall this winter as the storm track is shifted towards the East Coast may spare Minneapolis and Chicago the persistent low temperatures like last winter but it’s not out of the question they receive yet another cold, tough winter, just not quite as severe as last year.

I would call for near normal for the Northern Plains states and below normal for the southern states. The Northeast will see below normal with a pockets between DC and southern New England, well below normal. With the kind of snow the last two einters across New England, this winter may not see quiet as much snow, but the cold might be something else. I would not be surprised if another state record was in jeopardy this upcoming winter. New Hampshire perhaps??

Some new snow records in West Virginia, Maryland, PA, down to Georgia??

February will be another very cold month for the east but as the month progresses I believe we see the collapse of the El Nino and therefore a weakening of the western ridge, perhaps a cold end to winter for the Rockies whilst a reversal perhaps the last week of February for East?

Tomorrow, I shall post predicted lows across the USA as well as snowfall compared to normal.

Thanks for reading and please feel free to email me comments or questions regarding this forecast.