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Bill’s recent satellite presentation shows a stronger better organised hurricane once again with some better defined features such as the eye and strong, deep convection and extremely high, cold cloud tops that make up the eyewall hot towers which is wrapped entirely around the eye rather than only in some quadurants. This increase in intensity has created stronger inflowing of air from all sides and this is releasing perfect outflow from the top of the system. According to the latest NHC discussion on Bill http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/202036.shtml?, the GOES satellite SUPER-RAPID scan showed mesovortices within the eye, indicative of powerful hurricanes.
All this shows an intensifying hurricane that is likely on it’s way to returning to category 4 strength within the next 6-12 hours and may well become cat 4 again overnight tonight. But with Bill approaching the warmest ocean heat profile on his life and a 200mb anticyclone over top, this conducive atmospheric environment may allow not only strengthening to cat 4 but maybe even briefly cat 5 intensity and pressures that drop to 920mb!
As far as the track goes. modelling remains further west than previous runs, however keeps Bill offshore of the New England coast. That being said, there is still 2 days for models to shift further west or east and we still have to remain alert and ready for the possibility that Bill may get too close for comfort and sideswift the New England coast or worse case hit it. If so, this would have severe consequences to a region that’s had a wet summer. Also of concern is that waters all the way to Nova Scotia are warmer than normal therefore may slow the weakening process of Bill as he treks north into cooler waters. Warmer waters and if close to the coast, shallower waters and an increase in forward speed as he heads into higher latitudes may mean a stronger hit on Nova Scotia as faster forward speed means less time to weaken…
Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi has pointed out that during many great New England hurricanes have seen cool, wet summers and prior to hits by hurricanes in this region, positive height anomolies have been over the Canadian Maritimes and negative heights over the Ohio Valley. Very interesting. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest as well as AccuWeather.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
>Do you think your brick-built house could withstand a direct hit from 'Bill'? What damage would you expect? The house I lived in for many years as a child was exposed directly to westerly winds. During great winter gales, with gusts peaking over 100 mph, you could feel the house strain under the great forces unleashed by mother nature. I would often have sleepless nights, as the seal on my double glazed window would resonate within the audible range, due to air forcing its way through, such as to produce a high pitched noise. Despite all this, the only damage sustained over the years was the loss of two roof tiles. We had garden walls topple, and my shed used to slide from one end of the garden to the other during these gales. The shed would require several adults to trasport it back to its intended position. I'm sure you may remember the roof of the DSE at school being severly ravashed by fierce winds at good old BHS. I'm sure the rugby posts were also snapped by great gusts. Those were the days. I haven't experienced a severe gale since my childhood.