It’s been a warm fall and open to the 2015-16 winter and when looking back, I think you would agree that the overall December Outlook played out quite well with the cold West, warm East.
If there was an underestimate to the month, it came with the degree of warmth seen, likely down to the peaking of the Super El Nino and warmth in-close to South America. To me, it’s quite clear that this years Super Nino is overwhelming the pattern not just over the US but the entire hemisphere.
To top this warm December off, yesterday was the warmest Christmas Eve in history up and down the East Coast.
Credit: Albany University
On the opposite coast, old man winter was causing travel issues over the Sierra. This was Daggett Pass, CA yesterday.
December temperature anomaly to date!
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The El Nino appears to have peaked and should slowly decrease in strength through the next few months.
You only have to look at the warmth globally in both November and December. This classic to the strongest El Ninos.
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER-to-date
Whether it’s the El Nino or a separate driver, the AO/NAO index just doesn’t want to go negative or even neutral for that matter.
That’s down to a strong, pole positioned vortex leading to potentially the warmest November-December in history for US as well as Europe.
Large-scale pattern change after New Year?
The models continue to show significant strat warming at 10mb through the next 15 days.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
MJO crosses through the warm phases of 5, 6 and 7 but is projected to enter phase 8!
As well as the strat warming, modelling shows the reflection at 500mb with heights rising up into Northwest Canada during January.
GFS ensemble shows the positive lifting northwestwards and this should lead to a trough over the Eastern US through the first 10-15 days of January.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Canadian for January
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
For more on the overall winter, see Winter 2015-16 Forecast
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TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Brett & William Photography Design!
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