United States of America
There’s no question, the warmth building from the Front Range to East Coast is mighty impressive. While countless daily records will fall, we may well see some all-time December highs and lows threatened if not fall too. Check out the day by day 2m temperature anomalies off the GFS. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Then the true Arctic-Siberian air […]
Rain is falling in San Francisco this morning and this is only the start of what will be a stormy upcoming 5-7 days with a more significant spell of wind, rain and mountain snow moving in tomorrow. The storms are lining up out in the Pacific. While it turns cooler, wetter and windier over Northern […]
It’s clear to see that the El Nino is the main driver starting off winter 2015-16 and not just over the US but globally. Just look at how warm the continents are but this opening week has been a blow torch over the heart of North America and Eurasia. This will excite the global warming crowd I’m sure. The […]
Helped by a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, we have a strengthening west-east jet stream crossing the Pacific, providing a lot of energy to drive across the United States this week. As a consequence to this 190+ mph jet this week, we’ll see the first ‘series of storms’ batter the West Coast with hurricane-force […]
Every weekend in the run up to New Year, I thought it might be good to take a step back in time and relive some of America and Europe’s very worst, most extreme winters of the last 100+ years. Thought I would start off with 1985 for the US which saw a record mild December in the East! […]
It would be foolish to base a forecast on any particular model run solution. For long range forecasting in particular, when accuracy greatly falls away week at 5 days or beyond, we look for trends, consistently over one particular solution and cross model agreement. Let me just say there’s consistency and agreement that the big positive centred over […]
The majority of the US is now entering a tranquil, mild high pressure pattern as we head deeper into December. The only real weather to speak of will be in the Pacific Northwest as well as a a couple of systems running up the East Coast but on the whole, by early winter standards, it’s a quiet pattern […]
It’s worth pointing out that while there’s a great deal of hype even excitement regarding the evolving warm December pattern, what’s being overlooked is the fact that Canada is nearly completely snow covered and as well as that there’s a good deal more snow not just over North America but hemisphere wide compared to this time last […]
December 2015 appears on track to be a pretty mild month, especially across the Northern Tier. The polar stratosphere continues to strengthen with temps at 10mb dipping towards -80C within the next 10 days. This supports a strong westerly influence throughout the mid-latitudes with oceanic air largely dominating the continents. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The question is, could […]
The below global SST map is one that should be copied and pasted. We may never see such a warm Pacific in our lifetime again. But 1997 was warm, Mark? In the TROPICAL Pacific yes but not North Pacific! While December is poised to be mild for much of the country, assume the rest of […]
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