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Today marks the official start to meteorological summer and the Atlantic Hurricane season 2016. As you would expect, the tropics are quiet but not silent with NHC highlighting an area of disturbed weather Central America. In recent days, models have been picking up on developing either over the western Caribbean or Gulf. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] ECMWF and […]
This Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast 2016 is based on the current and projected El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO), current and projected global sea surface temperature anomalies and past analogs. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Current SSTA’s. Based purely on the fact we are seeing the development of a La Nina following a strong El Nino, one could jump to the […]
If unfamiliar with Texas but you’ve been following the weather and climate in recent years, you could be forgiven for thinking that the climate of Texas was changing. Becoming more like Florida or even the Amazon after looking and feeling more like Arizona between 2010 and 2013. However, if you delve deeper or understand climate and the past, the turbulent and typically extreme climate of the […]
As promised, this Memorial Day weekend has brought the first widespread and record 90s throughout the Eastern US just as folks enjoy the ‘unofficial start to summer’. We also saw not the first but second named tropical storm of the season which made landfall in South Carolina yesterday. When was the first? Remember that rare […]
70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms May 27, 2016 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, will most likely be near-normal, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult. […]
Want to cover a few things going on just now but firstly, take a look at this morning’s visible satellite animation. Firstly note the flare up of deep convection over the heart of Texas where further flooding rains and severe weather will affect this region and further north over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Today promises to be another […]
As well as the Memorial Day weekend heat in the Midwest, Northeast and tropical threat for the Southeast, we’re also talking a 360 degree flip between the upcoming memorial day weekend and next. By that I mean the Western trough/Eastern ridge goes opposite. Here’s the latest ECMWF. Check out the difference between this Saturday and next […]
It’s a busy run up to the big Memorial Day weekend with deepening trough in West and building ridge in East. We’re likely to exceed the 90-degree mark for the first time this year in DC, possibly New York and Boston but the west-east contrast, strong storm and strong jet, this week is a big week for […]
Following a warm winter, it turned colder and wetter during the spring but it looks like May will end warm to hot through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast for Memorial Day weekend. However, May has been a cold month throughout the Lower 48 with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and where it’s been very dry over […]
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