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December 2025, as predicted both in my Winter Forecast & December Outlook was mild and wet with frequent lows and fronts affecting the NW of Europe including UK & Ireland. The southwest to northeast storm track kept the UK and Ireland on the warm, moist side of the ridge-trough couplet and higher pressure over Europe […]
A variable month which started with mild west, cold in east along with Storm Amy slamming the UK/Ireland while record early snowfalls affected the Balkans. Into mid month and the ridge/trough pattern flipped around with colder east, warmer east and high variation in rainfall distribution. Global temp & precip anomaly for October 2025 Europe UK […]
In this 2nd winter update, I wish to make this more thoughts based on what was discussed in the 1st update. Basing the latest drivers into potential outcomes. DRIVERS: LA NINA / EASTERLY QBO / WARM OVER COLD NORTH PACIFIC & FADING -IOD Some important considerations for Winter 25-26 We’re firmly in at least weak […]
From deep cyclonic to anticyclonic, the wild swings of autumn! Storm Amy and her record low pressure and wind speeds seem like a distant memory since a powerful area of high pressure steadily built in and anchored itself over the UK. As is often the case during autumn, we’ve found ourselves parked beneath a strong, […]
Latest Key Factors We’re increasingly likely to observe at least WEAK La Nina conditions through late autumn and early winter. 3 KEY DRIVERS: La Nina, Easterly QBO, -IOD Latest equatorial Pacific SSTA’s show La Nina conditions developing. The important region to watch is for ENSO status is 3.4 Model Projection Examples of Easterly QBO years: […]
August 2025 was another warm month for UK, Ireland W Europe as well as many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Not everywhere was warm, however, it was cool in places such as the Baltic states, parts of Kazakhstan, Mongolia as well as Eastern US. 3rd warmest August on record globally behind 2023 and 2024 with […]
It was a warm to very warm month for most with variable rainfall distribution across Europe. Global anomaly Hot start for UK with 35.8C recorded at Faversham, Kent on the 1st but probably the most notable heat came to the UK mid-month. 27/28+C was witnessed at stations from south to north coast. 5 sites set […]
Key Factors Higher confidence Lower confidence First of all let’s see what’s considered normal. Tropical Cyclone Climatology Number Named systems Hurricanes Major Hurricanes 1 Jun 20 Aug 11 Sep 1 2 Jul 17 Aug 26 Sep 19 3 Aug 3 Sep 7 Oct 28 4 Aug 15 Sep 16 – 5 Aug 22 Sep 28 […]
Welcome to my 15th annual UK/Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies etc. Quick Summer […]
The mild, dry theme through March has continued throughout much of April across most of Europe. While the pattern did turn more unsettled, especially in the run-up to Easter, rainfall has remained subpar while temperatures have remained average to above. Unusually persistent blocking remains the primary culprit! Below is the 500mb geopotential heights 1 March […]
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