Seasonal Forecasts
UPDATED: FRIDAY EVE On the grand scheme of things, we have a fairly run of the mill, quiet Easter weekend on the way with no significant cold, snow, heat or storms to speak of. So for the details…. the UK and Ireland is currently sandwiched between high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the northeast […]
It seems to happen just about every spring… when you can’t get the pattern to fit during the wintertime, it happens during the spring just when your ready for warmth. The NAO has been positive in recent weeks. This would technically lead to a wetter UK but it hasn’t. The setup has looked a lot […]
With the next storm pushing through the Mississippi Valley today, so we’re talking severe weather yet again from Texas to Illinois while the heat is on for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Stormy skies over Chicago this afternoon where there’s a severe thunderstorm warning in place. East of the cold front, it’ll be feeling distinctly summer-like with […]
It was more like late winter over Northwest Scotland while mid summer in Southeast England yesterday. Today’s it’s much cooler in the Southeast by up to 10C. GFS surface/precip and 2m temp anomaly chart for 18z yesterday. The lift in the South and decline in the North was down to a SE progressing cold front. Produced quite the […]
With a stormy pattern at this volatile time of year, so the Eastern temperature seesaw continues. From warm, wet and for some, tornadic to open the week to cold and even snowy to end it. In the wake of the cold front which produced up to a dozen tornadoes, cold late season brand arctic air is drilling all the […]
The evidence is clear cut that when soil moisture is low late spring into summer, the atmosphere tends to be drier, often supporting stronger than normal pressure and therefore warmer temperatures. The opposite occurs when soils are wet. Each and every spring, I closely monitor rainfall distribution through particularly March, April and May but also cannot […]
The Storm Prediction Center issued a HIGH RISK area for south Georgia extending into South Carolina during yesterday’s latest severe weather outbreak. This appears to be the earliest 3rd high risk issuance in any year. Back in 2006 a 3rd was issued but on April 7 not 5th. Preliminary storm reports on SPC overlay from yesterday. At least 9 filtered […]
While it was a warm end to March for much of Europe, it was a downright hot end to March over the southwest edge of the African Sahel. Ghana has become the latest nation to claim a new national record. Since January 1, it’s a two way draw in new national record highs and lows.
It’s a very repetitive pattern with Atlantic giving way to blocking high pressure. High pressure holds firm over the UK to end the week but change comes this weekend as the Atlantic returns. With it comes another pre-frontal warm surge as winds turn southerly. Again, it’s mainly England/Wales which truly benefits. As the trough and jet digs west of Ireland, […]
It seems that day after day, severe thunderstorms are sweeping the Southern US. Just two days ago, several large and damaging tornadoes swept the South and today, that same area hit hardest Monday, is under a moderate risk again today. Within the 48 hours between Sun-Mon, some 31 tornadoes was reported. A robust squall line […]
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