Seasonal Forecasts
The spring forecast will be released in the coming days but I have deliberately held back on putting a forecast out. The reason is that we’re talking about a cold AMO signal along with a potential El Nino forming this summer. These factors along with the wet soils across Ireland and the UK will have impact […]
The overall fall pattern is unfolding as predicted back in August with a largely warm September and start to October with cold end. Also, as expected, the pattern is shifting and November overall is looking milder and wetter for the East while the trough repositions back over the West as the indexes flip. Based on all current […]
Well it’s that time of year. Time for your Europe winter forecast 2013-14. Based on multiple factors below, I have concluded that the upcoming winter should be colder and snowier than normal in Western Europe and warmer, drier in the East. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Summer/Autumn 2013 Pattern The type of summer this year with well above normal temperatures across […]
It’s been a cool summer from North Dakota to Florida and for Eastern areas, August has been downright chilly with temperatures averaging 4-8 degrees below normal. This comes on the heels of a cold and very snowy back end to winter and spring season. The NAO from the end of July turned negative and this along with saturated […]
Much of summer 2013 has been dominated by a POSITIVE AO and NAO which presented a warm to hot July across Europe but this setup also produced a cold summer across the pole which explains why the sea ice is more extensive this year compared to last. These results will likely support a mixed autumn season with an increased chance of an early start to […]
It’s been a long, cold and snowy winter across much of the US but as temperatures begin to warm, this puts us all in the mood for warmer days, barbeques, the beach and vacation. As we’re getting deeper into spring, the role of rainfall becomes more and more important as distribution of precipitation can very much determine what kind […]
It may feel like winter is never-ending but today, we can look forward to the warmer weather with my UK & Ireland Summer Forecast 2013. It seems like a very long time since we enjoyed a decent summer here in the British Isles and Ireland. Recent summers have been very much dominated by excessive rainfall […]
In recent months I have presented to you background explanation as to why I expect the US to see a colder winter this year compared to last winter and here is the final product: my official USA Winter Forecast 2012-13. Given my expectation of a winter dominated by high latitude ‘blocking’, this winter should be colder than normal […]
In both Winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 my long range seasonal forecast turned out successful but last year that success came to a crashing halt. Since then I have been studying the global pattern, ocean sea surface temperatures across the world as well as observing closely what our weather pattern has been telling us ever since last year. I’ve learned […]
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