Mark Vogan
After a non-winter, all of a sudden old man winter gets here 3 months late and doesn’t want to leave. A +AO/NAO low pressure dominated winter has abruptly flipped to a -AO/NAO high pressure dominated spring. We’ve went from 200% of normal rainfall widely back in February to just 20% of normal rain during April. […]
There’s been nothing normal about the polar vortex over the past 10 months. After being record strong throughout the past winter, producing the 4th warmest winter for the UK, 6th warmest for the US and warmest on record for Europe as a whole, the final stratospheric warming has now finally unraveled. Perhaps late due to […]
With the MJO lingering in the west/central Pacific warm phases, this forced a strong and sustained polar vortex, which resulted in the 6th warmest winter on record for the US. This enhanced the mid latitude subtropical ridge and forced the lowering of heights across the high latitudes, hence the strong polar vortex which bottled polar […]
April couldn’t have been more different to February for Western Europe with frequent Atlantic lows (active rossby wave train) bringing record rainfall to the UK. This ‘stuck’ pattern was abruptly replaced by only another stuck pattern, a blocked high (stationary wave) which brought 4 straight weeks without a drop of rain for some. The tap […]
Based on all the current parameters and model projection, the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be busy one. However, let’s keep in mind that although 9 out of 10 factors can align perfectly, it just takes one factor to significantly suppress development or intensification in a seemingly perfect environment, e.g Saharan dust, wind […]
Recent Comments