Mark Vogan
December 2025, as predicted both in my Winter Forecast & December Outlook was mild and wet with frequent lows and fronts affecting the NW of Europe including UK & Ireland. The southwest to northeast storm track kept the UK and Ireland on the warm, moist side of the ridge-trough couplet and higher pressure over Europe […]
An unusually warm, wet December ends cold, frosty and largely dry while January opens increasingly cold, with biting northerly. The northerly, packing 30 to 50+mph gusts shall usher in increasingly heavy and frequent snow showers. Low level accumulations of 5-10cm and 10-20, locally 30+ over high, exposed ground. A yellow snow and ice warning is […]
Despite a cooler end, December 2025 will be remembered for it’s persistent spells of wind, rain and warmth. On 9/10th Dec, Storm Bram (4th name of 2025/26 season) swept past. While generating the usual strong winds and heavy rains, probably the most notable aspect of this particular storm is the unusually warm air air pulled […]
Bi-Polar November’s seem to be a thing this recently. Abrupt swings from strong southwesterlies bringing record warmth to northerlies ushering in heavy snow and cold… Global temp & precip anomaly for November 2025 Europe The first 10 days was warm, even record warm across the continent with UK observing it’s warmest bonfire night on record. […]
December and meteorological winter starts mild and wet with the Atlantic the rule. The tail end of November finished with a rare SSW but being of the reflective type and supportive of North American cold outbreaks, the result for Europe is a stronger jet and reinforced low pressure dominance. While the MJO is strongly in […]
Welcome to my 16th consecutive Europe winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming meteorological winter period (December-February) are based on current climate state and global drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, IOD, QBO & Solar! Global Drivers Weak La Nina conditions Deepest -IOD Since 1996 Easterly QBO Warm […]
A variable month which started with mild west, cold in east along with Storm Amy slamming the UK/Ireland while record early snowfalls affected the Balkans. Into mid month and the ridge/trough pattern flipped around with colder east, warmer east and high variation in rainfall distribution. Global temp & precip anomaly for October 2025 Europe UK […]
October ends and November begins with a deep Icelandic trough/Euro high with a predominantly mild, moist WSW flow as per week 1 of the CFSv2. The below total accumulated rainfall displays the above nicely with wettest where exposed to the Atlantic rainbands. A windy period too. With possible strengthening of the Euro ridge, I suspect […]
In this 2nd winter update, I wish to make this more thoughts based on what was discussed in the 1st update. Basing the latest drivers into potential outcomes. DRIVERS: LA NINA / EASTERLY QBO / WARM OVER COLD NORTH PACIFIC & FADING -IOD Some important considerations for Winter 25-26 We’re firmly in at least weak […]
From deep cyclonic to anticyclonic, the wild swings of autumn! Storm Amy and her record low pressure and wind speeds seem like a distant memory since a powerful area of high pressure steadily built in and anchored itself over the UK. As is often the case during autumn, we’ve found ourselves parked beneath a strong, […]
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