An arctic air mass has overtaken the Great Lakes region.
The air is more than cold enough to produce lake-effect snow.
Localized squalls will dump significant accumulations downwind of the lakes.
Lake-effect snow will continue to hammer the Great Lakes region through Friday thanks to an arctic air mass that has invaded the Lower-48 states. When all is said and done, some areas will see total accumulations of a foot or more, with snowfall rates exceeding an inch per hour at times.
Thundersnow and snowfall rates of two inches per hour were reported with a lake-effect snow band east of Lake Erie in Warsaw, New York, late Thursday morning. Four inches of snow was reported in one hour early Thursday afternoon to the southeast of Lake Erie in Perrysburg, New York, where nearly a foot of snow had piled up so far.
Eight inches of snow has fallen so far in Black River, New York, which is south-southwest of Buffalo. Not far from there, in Perrysburg, New York, snowfall rates topped four inches per hour on Thursday afternoon. More than 14 inches was reported there.
In Michigan, more than 10 inches of snow fell in Painesdale in a 24 hour span ending Thursday afternoon.
Lake-effect snow may have been a contributing factor to a deadly multi-car pileup on I-96 in Lower Michigan on Thursday.
(MORE: Deadly Pileup in Michigan)
Current Conditions and Radar
Various lake-effect snow warnings, winter storm warnings and advisories have been posted by the National Weather Service in the typical areas that are prone to lake-effect snow, from Upper Michigan to western Lower Michigan and areas east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Winter Weather Alerts
Intense snow bands will continue in some areas into Friday, especially off Lakes Erie and Ontario, due to an upwind connection with the upper Great Lakes and possibly even the Hudson Bay at times. The heaviest snowfall off of Lake Erie should stay to the south of Buffalo.
Due to the extremely localized nature of lake-effect snow, some places could pick up 1 to 3 inches of snow in an hour or less, while just 10 miles away there may only be flurries and some breaks of sun.
In locations that see the most persistent heavy snow bands, total accumulations of 1 to 3 feet are not out of the question east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. A foot or more of snow could also fall in parts of Upper Michigan and northwest Lower Michigan.
Snowfall Forecast
(FORECAST: Syracuse, New York | Buffalo, New York | Erie, Pennsylvania | Traverse City, Michigan)
As is typical in situations like this, blinding snow squalls can create very poor travel conditions in a matter of minutes. In past winters, we’ve seen bands of lake-effect snow contribute to multi-car pileups. Please travel with caution in the Great Lakes region through Friday night.
(MORE: Weather-Related Car Accidents Far More Deadly Than Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Floods)
Any steadier bands of lake-effect snow should diminish by Saturday, but a new weather system may bring a more widespread area of snow to the Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday into Monday.
(MORE: Winter Storm Caly Forecast)
Lake-Effect Snow Setup
An upper-level low-pressure system has set up in southern Canada, spinning bitterly cold west to northwest winds over the relatively warmer Great Lakes.
(MORE: Coldest Air of Season Possible Next Week for Midwest, Northeast)
For lake-effect snow to develop, the air temperature about 5,000 feet above the surface must be at least 23 degrees Fahrenheit (13 degrees Celsius) colder than the lake temperature.
The temperatures of the Great Lakes are currently in the 40s, and this arctic air mass will be more than cold enough to irritate the mild lakes.
In fact, lake temperatures are running warmer than they have at this time each of the last five years, according to NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.
The cold, dry air will pick up moisture and heat from the lakes, which will condense into clouds and dump snow downwind of the lakes.
(MORE: The Science Behind Lake-Effect Snow)
Storm Reports So Far
Deepest storm reports by state through 5:00 pm EST on Thursday.
Other Notable Snowfall amounts:
- East Concord, NY: 11.5 inches
- Concord, NY: 11.0 inches
- near Warsaw, NY: 8.0 inches
- Forestville, NY: 8.0 inches
- Houghton, MI: 7.0 inches
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