There’s no denying the current linkage between the mighty Eurasian snowpack we’ve built up, weak polar vortex and sustained -AO.
Weak polar vortexes don’t take much to split, break or completely collapse and modelling appears to be hinting at another split in late November.
In the last split in late October, caused by a heat flux entering the polar stratosphere from Asia forced 1 piece of the PV into North America and the other into mid latitude Eurasia, causing an early taste of winter even to the UK.
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This has brought one of the coldest November opens in years to Northern Europe.
Credit: Michael Ventrice
The cold core from 10 down to 50mb through the stratosphere has been progressing east out of Canada and is now positioned over the North Atlantic. This cooler upper atmosphere, lowers heights beneath and enhances the Icelandic low which brings the return of westerly Atlantic winds to the UK and Western Europe through the next 7-10 days while heights down towards the Azores.
Another split would likely bring the return of blocking highs further north while cold air returns to the mid latitudes.
But even out to the 11-15 day off the GFS ensemble, oceanic air rules W Europe while Siberia remains cold.
Credit: AER
The key is exactly where the next projected split occurs and where the pieces of the vortex go, greatly determines where gets cold and where remains mild. We we’re fortunate with the last.
GFS does bringing warming back into Greenland by 240 hours, supportive of a colder Europe into December.
Long range models do see the return of NW then eventually NE winds returns from Scandinavia to UK!
CFSv2 weeklies show dominant Iceland low in 6-10 day while Greenland high is back in 21-25 day period.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
See this morning’s video.
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