An upper low and stalled frontal boundary over 85-90F water is fuelling an ongoing major flood situation from Tampa to Panama City extending up the Gulf Coast to Mobile and possibly as far as New Orleans. A constant injection of rich tropical moisture flowing over a record warm Gulf of Mexico into the low means some areas could see over 24″ of rain within 5 days.

Visible satellite shows the mass of convection field over the northeast Gulf.

Note the blue colours representing very cold cloud tops, indicative of very tall, mature thunderstorms packing intense lightning and rainfall.

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Butler Beach, FL.

The record warm Gulf is sure to be playing a significant role in maximising level of water vapour within atmosphere and enhancing convection, rainfall rates and amounts.

For now at least, the core of heaviest rains are offshore. Radar estimates that an astonishing 26″ of rain has fallen within 12 hours off Florida.

While 15 or so inches has fallen along Florida’s Big Bend, an additional 8-10 inches is likely.

Next 3 days!

The heaviest rains over the next few days heads up the Gulf Coast and over the New Orleans to Mobile corridor. Up to 18 more inches over the next 7 days!

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