UPDATE: It’s been confirmed that the UK has set a new 24 and 48-hour rainfall record this weekend. 341.4mm (13 inches) fell within 24 hours at Honister breaking the previous record set back in 2009 and 405mm (16 inches) fell within 48 hours at Thirlmere.

Confirmation from Met Office.

It’s safe to say that this past weekend has been eventful, unfortunately devastating for many across Carlisle and Cumbria and my heart goes out to all those affected.

This event is arguably November 2009 all over again and for some folks, they’ve been devastated by the 2005, 2009 and now 2015 events.

As well as the widespread 90-120mm of rain which fell from the Midlands to Northwest Highlands, powerful winds also caused big problems with gusts exceeding 80 mph on the coast and over the hills of Wales, England, Scotland and Ireland. Great Dun Fell in the north Pennines recorded a gust of 99 mph while it’s said Cairngorm clocked a 130 mph gust.

Let’s recall November 2009 and the devastation is brought when a new UK 24-hour rainfall record was set at Seathwaite Farm.

The devastation is then repeated in 2015!

MAJOR RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODS WAS A CONCERN HERE SINCE SUMMER BASED ON THE PATTERN AND EL NINO.

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This weekend’s event had striking meteorological as well as geographical similarity to 2009!

Nov 2009 surface chart

Surface chart for 0z yesterday morning.

How the pattern and ingredients were essentially the same 6 years later

1) El Nino (considerably stronger than 2009) 2) warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters stretching from tropics up the eastern side of the Atlantic to UK 3) a strong +NAO/AO with deep North Atlantic trough/Europe ridge 5) a deep low positioned near Iceland 6) trailing frontal system ultimately connected Cumbria and UK with the Caribbean 7) front stalled over Northwest England/SE Scotland thanks to 8) a powerful upper high over the near continent.

The ‘atmospheric river’ which connects the mid-latitudes with tropics is what’s responsible for bringing exceptional rains to places more accustomed to steady and more prolonged rainfall during the wintertime. Cold core, mid-latitude depressions don’t contain a fraction of the moisture than systems with warm core and originate in the warmer low latitudes.

13 inches of rain on Cumbria, England sets a new UK benchmark for 24 hour rainfall and the very same system responsible also brought a record 9 inches of rain over the weekend to Miami, yes about 3,000 miles away and this was their 2nd biggest December rain.

CIRA layered PW helps visualize #AtmosphericRiver stretching from the Caribbean to Ireland/UK!

Astonishing 24 hour rain totals.

Just as astonishing is the rain shadow effect to the lee of the Highlands and Pennines. Keep in mind that our mountains aren’t high from a continental or global perspective! 2-4,000ft hills don’t take up nearly as much of our lower and middle atmosphere compared to Alps, Rockies, Andes, Himalayas etc.

Storm System Had Record-Breaking Influence Over Europe Too

The influence of this monster Icelandic low was not just excessive rainfall but also helped provide a large maximum temperature divide Saturday and Sunday Europe.

While record December snows fell on Reykjavik, Iceland as backside winds swept in from the north, a strong southerly flow ahead of the front drove record December warmth from Spain all the way to Finland.

The strong +NAO/AO is helping enhance the thermal gradient and stronger jet stream through the mid-latitudes while the strong El Nino is helping pumping tropical moisture north via a stronger, more northerly and dominating subtropical jet stream.

Sharp thermal gradient at 850mb is part of the reason for the 200 mph jet crossing Pacific and Atlantic.

Speed max seen roaring over Northwest UK yesterday PM. Note the strength of jet crossing Pacific towards Canada.

More trouble brewing this week for Ireland, Cumbria and UK.

This pattern isn’t done with us yet. An additional 2-4 inches is likely over the next week with further systems pushing in.

It was very wet in places this morning and another system arrives as early as tomorrow. Further wind and rain with this.

Then there’s a stronger system which is likely to drop another 50-100mm accompanied by gales or even severe gales Thursday.

Further flooding issues likely throughout this week.

Be sure to watch this morning’s video for the discussion.

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Tags: carlisle flooding 2015, cumbria floods 2015, uk floods december 2015