UPDATED: Sat Aug 8:

In summer, in Texas, when dry, you fry!

A very dry July has set the stage for a hot start to August.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

…VERY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN JULY…

NOTE…CORRECTIONS WERE MADE TO THE YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL AND THE
JUNE RAINFALL.

THE MONTH OF JULY CONTINUED THE DRY TREND THAT HAD DEVELOPED IN
THE LAST PART OF JUNE. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS CAME ALSO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES. JULY ENDED WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TWO OUT OF THE 12 FIRST- AND SECOND-ORDER CLIMATE SITES RECORDED
RAINFALL ABOVE AN INCH. ALL OF THE REMAINING SITES RECEIVED UNDER
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR ALL 12 SITES
WAS 0.68 INCHES…MUCH BELOW THE AREA-WIDE NORMAL OF 4.00 INCHES.
HERE IS A TABLE COMPARING EACH CLIMATE SITE FOR THE JULY RAINFALL…
THE JANUARY AND FEBRUARY DRY PERIOD…THE MARCH THROUGH MAY WET
PERIOD…AND THE MONTH OF JUNE.

JULY MONTHLY      JAN – FEB       MAR – MAY    JUNE MONTHLY
SITE     RAIN    DEP     RAIN    DEP     RAIN    DEP    RAIN   DEP

IAH      0.61   -3.18    3.83   -2.75   26.61  +14.80  11.39  +5.56
HOU      2.57   -2.09    5.88   -1.20   28.85  +17.65   4.87  -2.23
CLL      0.31   -1.83    7.41   +1.32   20.36  +10.20   5.21  +0.76
GLS      0.23   -3.57    6.14   -0.63   16.04   +5.51   2.75  -2.94
CXO      1.44   -1.99    3.93   -3.11   23.75  +12.97   3.61  -1.97
DWH      0.21   -3.63    3.87   -2.71   24.32  +12.57   7.64  +2.42
LBX      0.61   -3.95    6.36   -1.03   20.81  +10.78   5.41  -0.26
LVJ      0.69   -4.02    6.02   -1.38   24.49  +13.40   6.66  +1.11
PSX      0.43   -4.33    4.18   -1.54   13.42   +3.61   3.09  -1.40
SGR      0.43   -3.93    3.84   -2.98   35.50  +24.30   3.27  -1.75
UTS      0.06   -3.32    5.47   -1.41   30.46  +19.54   8.42  +3.61
HGX      0.57   -4.01    7.20   -0.18   27.18  +15.98   9.26  +2.83

THE RAINFALL DEPARTURES FOR EACH SITE REVEALS SOME INTERESTING
DATA. GALVESTON AND PALACIOS AT THE COAST HAS HAD A FAIRLY DRY
YEAR. OTHERWISE…A VERY WET MARCH…APRIL…AN ESPECIALLY WET
MONTH OF MAY…AND A MIXED ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL JUNE LED TO SOME
VERY WET CONDITIONS WHICH THEN LED TO THE ENDING OF THE DROUGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL
JUNE TO NOW A VERY DRY JULY…ABONRMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS THE PRELIMINARY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND
RAINFALL DATA FOR THE FIRST- AND SECOND-ORDER CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NOTE THAT VERY WARM CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED…
WITH EACH SITE SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL MONLTHY AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES.

JULY 2015 DATA

AVE     AVE     MONTHLY AVE        MONTHLY       YEAR-TO-DATE
SITE    HIGH    LOW     DAILY   DEP     RAIN     DEP     RAIN    DEP

IAH     95.6    76.5    86.1   +1.7     0.61    -3.18    42.44 +14.33
GLS     91.6    81.6    86.6   +2.1     0.23    -3.57    25.16  -1.63
CLL     94.7    75.5    85.1   +0.4     0.31    -1.83    33.29 +10.45
HOU     94.9    77.1    86.0   +2.2     2.57    -2.09    42.30 +12.26
CXO     95.0    72.9    84.0   +1.4     1.44    -1.99    32.73  +5.90
UTS     95.0    76.0    85.5   +1.4     0.06    -3.32    44.41 +18.42
DWH     95.2    75.6    85.4   +3.3     0.21    -3.63    36.04  +8.65
SGR     95.5    74.2    84.9   +1.3     0.43    -3.93    43.04 +15.64
LBX     93.5    75.4    84.4   +2.1     0.61    -3.95    33.19  +5.54
PSX     91.7    80.9    86.3   +2.3     0.43    -4.33    21.12  -3.66
LVJ     95.0    77.2    86.1   +3.1     0.69    -4.02    37.86  +9.11
HGX     92.5    78.0    85.2   +3.2     0.57    -4.01    44.21 +14.62

THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS THE RAINFALL DATA FROM THE VOLUNTEER
NETWORK OF CO-OP OBSERVERS. NOTE THAT THESE NUMBERS MAY BE
UPDATED LATER THIS MONTH.

RAINFALL AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR JULY 2015

LOCATION                    RAINFALL   DEPARTURE

ANAHUAC *                     1.14       -4.31
BAYTOWN                       2.56       -2.38
BRENHAM                       2.98       +0.42
CLEVELAND                     0.78       -2.64
CROCKETT                      0.19       -2.83
DANEVANG *                    0.56       -4.09
FREEPORT                      1.27       -3.41
LIBERTY                       3.54       -1.66
MATAGORDA                     0.11       -4.17
SOMERVILLE                    1.14       -0.75
WASHINGTON STATE PARK         1.04       -1.33
BELLVILLE                     0.71       -2.04
HOUSTON WESTBURY              3.52       -0.52
KATY *                        1.75       -1.56
MONTGOMERY *                  0.34       -2.38

This is Houston’s hottest spell by far since the record heat wave of August 2013 which saw temperatures reach a record tying 109. Could it tie in in this streak? Yes.

Heat wave is triggering excessive heat warning across large area of South.

So far in Houston…

Houston’s all-time record of 109 may be threatened in the coming days!

GFS is printing out some crazy heat. Yes 115-120 for E Texas, S Arkansas, N Louisiana.

And located beside a warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico, humidity is higher and nights remain particularly warm.

Water Temperature Table of the Western Gulf of Mexico (Google Maps-based Web page)
Last Updated: Sat Aug 08, 08:02:41 UTC 2015

Location	Recent Temperatures	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
Corpus Christi Point, TX	84.4 (08/08/2015 07:48 UTC)	79	83	84	85	84	79	70	62
Eagle Point, TX	81.5 (08/08/2015 07:54 UTC)	74	86	87	88	82	73	65	56
Freeport TX	87.3 (08/08/2015 07:48 UTC)	77	82	84	85	82	75	66	59
Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX	N/A	78	83	86	86	83	75	67	59
Galveston Bay Entrance, North Jetty, TX	86.4 (08/08/2015 07:54 UTC)	78	84	85	87	83	77	68	59
Galveston Channel TX	88.3 (08/08/2015 07:48 UTC)
Morgans Point, TX	83.8 (08/08/2015 07:54 UTC)	78	85	86	87	82	72	66	57
Port Aransas, TX	84.9 (08/08/2015 07:48 UTC)	80	85	86	86	86	77	72	63
Port Mansfield, TX	87.6 (08/08/2015 07:54 UTC)	79	83	85	85	83	76	69	62
Rockport, TX	86.9 (08/08/2015 07:48 UTC)	81	87	88	89	85	79	70	61
Sabine Pass North TX	88.2 (08/08/2015 07:54 UTC)	58	66	69	71	69	61	32	41
South Padre Island TX	81.7 (08/08/2015 07:48 UTC)	77	79	79	80	83	78	71	64
Buoy 42001	88.2 (08/08/2015 06:50 UTC)	78	82	84	85	84	81	77	75
Buoy 42002	85.6 (08/08/2015 06:50 UTC)	77	82	85	86	84	82	78	74
Buoy 42003	87.1 (08/08/2015 06:50 UTC)

Near 90 degree waters, are bringing a record string of 80+ degree nights for Galveston.

Galveston so far…

The GFS meteogram generally holds overnight minimums at or above 80 through August 15. This record could be blown out of the water!

Note in this morning’s GFS 2m temp chart how the warmth holds over the warm Gulf.

The warmest SST I can find against the US shore is 92.7F at Garfield Bight, FL.

As for further north. Same story. In fact records are falling with regards to LACK OF RAIN around the Dallas Metroplex.

Dallas/Fort Worth – Consecutive Days Without Measurable Precipitation

Dallas/Fort Worth – Consecutive Days Without Any Precipitation

Rank	# of Days	Dates
1	55	Jul 30 – Sep 22, 2000
2	45	Jun 8 – Jul 22, 1978
3	40	Nov 1 – Dec 10, 1903
4 (tie)	39	Jun 26 – Aug 3, 1993
	39	Oct 9 – Nov 16, 1917
6	33	Jul 11 – Aug 12, 1999
7	32	Feb 12 – Mar 14, 1972
8	31	Jul 6 – Aug 5, 2006
9 (tie)	30	Jul 9 – Aug 7, 2015 *
	30	Jul 6 – Aug 4, 1998
	30	Sep 22 – Oct 21, 1975

* streak still active

Rain and storms stay north of Texas through the upcoming week.

Quietest Hurricane Forecast Ever?

Due to the strong El Nino and cooler than normal tropical Atlantic, conditions are quiet as we approach statistically the busiest time of year.

NHC issues their quietest forecast ever according to Dr Chris Landsea.

A Sign Of Things To Come For California?

Meanwhile it’s opposite in the Pacific with lot’s of convection over the very warm waters. Also note the moisture plume from Guillermo reaching California. Henry Margusity of AccuWeather pointed this out. A possible sign of things to come, i.e pineapple express.

A clearer look. Evidence of a more pronounced subtropical jet, enhanced by the El Nino.

See video for discussion.

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Tags: el nino, heat wave, texas drought, Texas heat