The focus of heat has been over central and eastern Europe this month with all-time records being challenged in Berlin, Warsaw and several other central and eastern cities. There’s is a definite connection between and hot Europe and El Nino.

If we go back over the years, 1994, 1998, 2003, 2006, 2015, all produced MAJOR heat during the summer months across Europe. While the continent continues to bake, the UK remains in a changeable mode with Atlantic fronts always trying to push in. We’ve got an interesting upper low developing west of Iberia and is set to intensify through the Bay of Biscay over the next few days. This could bring spells of wind, heavy rain and storms through France east into central Europe but because of the strong blocking high, energy will be forced north into the southern flank of the UK this week.

The focus of dangerous heat remains over the heart of the continent over the next few days but the system set to roll across France will push the heat east, allowing central areas to cool but turning stormy Tuesday on..

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Berlin, Warsaw, Minsk, Kiev and Vienna have all been in the low to mid 30s of late. Highs around 23 C (75 F) are more common this time of year.

Warsaw has been knocking on the door of it’s all-time record of 36.4 C (97.5 F) set in 1994. This record remains in jeopardy for the next couple of days.

On Friday, Berlin just failed to reach it’s all-time record of 38.1C set back in 1959. Today saw Wroclaw, Poland reach 37.8C (100F). The normal high is only 22C (73F).

The GFS 500mb chart shows the bowling ball crossing France at 24 hours. Between boundaries, we’ve a channel of warm, moist air lifting into the Southern UK allowing temps to reach the mid-20s but a system crossing France needs to be monitored as this is likely to spread instability northward into this week. Warm, moist air beneath sets the stage for potential thunderstorms and downpours towards the Tue-Wed period.

GFS surface shows the upcoming few days. Note the high building across Ireland, northern England and Scotland while it’s more unsettled further south. Does it last? No, more disturbed weather will come in from both the north and south towards the end of the working week.

The warmer and more settled upcoming few days for Ire, NI and Scotland doesn’t change much as the upcoming 15 day period which takes us all the way to Aug 23, remains cooler than normal I’m afraid.

See the video for today’s discussion. No post tomorrow!

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Tags: el nino, europe heat wave, heat wave 2015