I have been consistently making mention of a LATE WEEKEND snow system for the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic… I must correct my poor timing error. It’s of course tonight and tomorrow this event. This could be pretty significant given the time of year!!

Latest ECMWF continues to show healthy amounts from NYC down through Philly and possibly into Baltimore with an outside chance of a coating to 1″ in DC. The heaviest snow appears to be focused between NYC and Philly as well as a secondary focus in the mountains of Maryland into south-central PA according to the models.

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GFS has caught up with the ECMWF and is now equally as bullish.

There’s great upper support driving in from the NW as the moisture lifts in from the SSE into a cold, dry air mass across the Mid-Atlantic. I must stress though that time of year, higher sun etc makes for a trickier forecast.

Here’s the surface maps.

The below jet stream maps show that upper level support dropping into the Mid-Atlantic from Canada but with a strengthening sub-tropical jet lifting north enhances the much needed UPWARD motion which will ultimately drive up the snow totals at a time of year where snow accumulation becomes more difficult.

The southern branch jet intensifies in the wake of the actual system tonight/tomorrow. Enhancement of southern precipitation shown in last night’s post comes when you’ve a polar jet dropping south while warm, moist air gets lifted north. While both jets may or may not meet over the East, this has the ‘flooding rain’ and training-effect storm potential.

QPF rainfall next 7 days.

10 day

Tonight into tomorrow’s snow system won’t be the last for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast or indeed a large swathe of the North, even the Southeast perhaps. Here’s the ECMWF snow chart through the next 10 days.

No video today. More tomorrow.

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