We know the Atlantic is set to fire on all cylinders this week, fuelled by an extreme cold pool developing over North America. The trouble for us was that last week, the models had a stronger than normal Azores high. A strength and position which would direct Atlantic lows predominantly to our north thus keeping us mild.

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The good thing is that modelling shows this ridge building then bursting later this week.

Now that lows and associated cold fronts dig, we get in on the backside cold air and that means not just wind and rain but colder air with snow an increased possibility next week.

Check out the turnaround in the 500mb height field between this week and next.

Note the increase in snowfall according to the GFS. Sure it’s mainly higher ground snow but enough push from the northwest or even the north may force brief spells of snow to lower levels.

GFS surface charts through the next 10 days.

As you can see from the below 850mb temps, as the pattern progresses, so these lows pull in some fairly chilly air straight from Greenland or the Arctic.

Ok, so I expect to see more of a fluid pattern with intrusions of cold on the backside of these deep lows. We should see spells of ‘wintry weather’, especially in more Northern areas.

NAO refuses to even go neutral never mind negative this winter.

CFSv2 keeps with the +NAO setup well into March.

 

More heavy snow expected in Turkey, this time focused on the east.

See video for today’s discussion!

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