While cold and stormy across Southern and Eastern Europe, it looks like the large ridge building into the West will eventually shut down the supply of cold with moderation to areas from Iberia to the eastern Med.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The UK’s main story will be the lack of precipitation through the 7-10 day. The ECMWF strengthens the high this weekend and then it gradually weakens, enough to perhaps allow a system in through the second half of next week bringing wind and rain but overall, this does not look like a particularly wet pattern through the first 15 days of Feb.

Looking at the CFSv2, the weekly charts show a firm positive NAO into early March and given the lack of negative or even neutral this winter (likely due to solar), why not believe this?

ECMWF surface charts through the next week look like this.

Notice that there’s enough weakening of the high early and mid next week to allow a low to get closer, likely bringing a return to something more unsettled.

This 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly off the ECMWF says it all doesn’t it. Screams out BORING!!

Note in the following 5 days, although there’s still a positive, the high is flatter and thus systems are likely to reach UK and Irish shores.

The one constant is this… NO NEGATIVE NAO.

Same with the CFSv2 week 1-4.

Winter over? Well firstly there’s been no negative NAO all seasonal and yet we’ve had plenty of winter with snow and cold. This high does promote milder days for sure but clear sky and light winds by night means frost and minus temps. Often these setups bring fog in the clear, calm and stagnant atmosphere and so it can be a struggle to warm in many places by day. Don’t be fooled by the positive heights and jet to our north, this can still be a chilly pattern.

As we look forward, a lot can be said for the type of spring you get which can determine the summer outcome.

As you can see from the below SST anomaly, we’ve got two features sticking out straight away. 1) The cold water in the Atlantic that’s hugging the UK and the weak, central Pacific El Nino.

El Nino springs can turn wet after a dry end to winter. We saw this in 2010 which led to a fairly wet summer. However the continuation of dry into the crucial month of April and cold surrounding waters can also lead to higher than normal pressure and a drier, warmer summer with a turn to wetter later. There’s all to play for at this point but should be interesting to watch as we head into March.

No video today but will have one tomorrow as usual.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]