In last night’s brief post I showed you the GFS end of the week ‘easterly’ solution. While a few dismissed this, lo and behold this is what the ECMWF is showing…

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Jet stream has wild amplification. Note it takes a route into arctic Scandinavia and then sweeps AROUND the ridge core positioned between Iceland and Scotland into Southeast England.

10-metre winds blow in from the ENE along the North Sea coast of England.

500mb height anomaly

850mb temps.

As for snowfall, had this setup occurred back in December, I would be more excited about sea effect snow into the Southeast. You want relatively warm water and a very cold wind but keep in mind that the North Sea is now colder than 2 months ago and this process is somewhat more limited but still, don’t be surprised if there’s snow showers blowing in on a strong to potentially near gale-force ENE wind.

This looks likely to be the longest, maybe strongest cold spell of winter.

ECMWF 5-day 500mb height anomalies.

Following 5 days ISN’T necessarily warmer just because we have a positive over the North at 18,000ft. There’s a world of low level cold air draining westward from Europe. That has an EASTERLY look to it.

The proof?

Check out the 5-day mean 2m temps. Notice the coldest anomalies are in SOUTHERN Britain!

CFSv2 shows Atlantic high migrating east but NORTH of the UK into Scandinavia. This is not a warm solution as a more pronounced EASTERLY could be the result of this and Southern parts of the UK may find themselves dealing with the worst of winter conditions rather than the focus being north and west… Interesting!

Then week 3-4 shows the return of the westerlies. If week 1-2 is remotely correct, you may be ready for the return of that milder westerly.

See video for today’s discussion.

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