The month has been cold so far in the East and it looks like the month could end colder than it began. Therefore despite the brief thaw we’re seeing now, the below normal departures now, should be even colder come January 31. Many a great winter has seen a mid January thaw!

Another cold one for the Northeast this morning, especially over the snow cover!

Check out the warming on the Plains… That’s the thaw that will only last a 5 days or so before more cold comes down in modest fashion out of Canada.

This is a map created by Brad Panovich showing the Southeast departures. Substantially below normal since Jan 1 but interesting to see how warm it’s been in Florida thanks to that stubborn SE ridge.

The WARMING or THAW that’s hitting now is short lived and we’re about the see an incredible height rise up over the NE Pacific, Alaska into the arctic which along with a North Atlantic block will force the coldest air in the hemisphere (compared to normal) into an increasingly deep eastern US trough.

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The upcoming 7-16 day period looks coldest of the entire winter as I believe that not just will we see a cross polar flow with Siberian as well as Arctic air in the pattern but a piece of the polar vortex could drop into the Great Lakes. Though I’m not saying we have some kind of Dec 89, Feb 96 or Jan 85 super outbreak coming, THIS is the type of pattern which could rival or beat last January’s cold.

The below GFS 500mb height anomaly charts shows the reversal in heights over AK and the exceptionally strong positive which penetrates the arctic north of AK which could force a chunk of the PV south.

192 hrs

240 hrs

324 hrs

Here’s a look at the 7-day means through the next 16 days and notice how the trough pretty much extends from the arctic down to the Southeast US. That upper air pattern suggests a real push of cold that keeps on coming with each wave colder than the last.

Day 0-7

8-14

9-16

See video for today’s discussion.

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