We along with many others have fresh snow on the ground this morning. It’s not the first. Up till now, it’s came and went but this time it should stay as colder air straight from the arctic sweeps in and locks in this weekend.

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The cold will build and with fronts riding the northerly flow, so snow cover will become better established and more widespread. Surface heights will be on the rise through the weekend and this sets the stage for the coldest air since January 2013.

This is the ECMWF’s projected snow cover over Europe as well as the UK & Ireland this time next week.

As winds lighten and skies clear out later Saturday night. So, we are likely to see a very cold night. That small area of purple represents -15C!

Here’s Monday AM.

-6 to -10C is possible wherever there is snow on the ground and you’ve clear skies and light winds. By day, it won’t warm above freezing and so this air mass just grows colder within arctic high pressure.

So, expect our weather to settle down dramatically it gets very cold as high pressure settles in. Pretty much anywhere could see a snow shower today through Tuesday but I’, closely monitoring a system coming in from the Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. No it WON’T bring the return of mild. By this stage there will be too much cold overwhelming the pattern and so it’s merely a moisture source which could bring a more widespread and potentially heavy snow to many.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface charts.

Here comes that front but notice how is weakens on approach. Why? Because it’s feeling the cold air out in front.

It’s not warm ahead, behind or along the front, so this is a SNOW PRODUCER not the return of mild, Atlantic weather!

This thing could make for a scene similar to this!

More cold air follows and so we’re likely to see -8 to -15C not just tomorrow night or Sunday night but on into early night week and late next week following this potential widespread snow midweek.

Keeping an eye on another potential system coming in from the west late next week. Models suggest this contains some milder air but remember the cold dam effect built up throughout the week. This won’t break easy and I suspect it could bring further snowfall to many if it manages to get in.

ECMWF 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

Day 0-7

2 metre temp anomalies

DAY 3-10

The GFS is near identical to the ECMWF in the day 0-7…

However, notice it ‘appears’ to bring in ridging day 7-14. Warmer pattern returning before the end of Jan?

Temps don’t reflect warmth!

CFSv2 500mb height anomalies look good week 1-2 with Greenland block, negative over UK and Europe!

Be sure to watch the video for more!

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