Nothing much to add regarding tonight’s situation over Northern Britain only batten down the hatches, especially in the North and Northwest. Wind gusts are still expected to be widely 50-70 mph with 80-105 mph over the Western and Northern Isles as well as the northwest mainland. Exposed areas even at low levels could receive gusts over 110 mph. Mountain tops could gust 140-150.
Why such strong winds despite seeing lower pressure in the past? Fuelled by a super strong 250+mph jet, the storm is rapidly deepening as it passes just north of the UK. Rapidly deepening systems are particularly potent as they tend to draw energy and stronger winds aloft and pull them down towards the surface.
Latest ECMWF shows how the low rapidly deepens.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Final look at the forecasted 10m wind gusts according to the ECMWF model.
10 metre wind gusts.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
| 5 | Knots | = | 5.8 | MPH |
| 10 | Knots | = | 11.5 | MPH |
| 15 | Knots | = | 17.3 | MPH |
| 20 | Knots | = | 23.0 | MPH |
| 25 | Knots | = | 28.8 | MPH |
| 30 | Knots | = | 34.6 | MPH |
| 35 | Knots | = | 40.3 | MPH |
| 40 | Knots | = | 46.1 | MPH |
| 45 | Knots | = | 51.8 | MPH |
| 50 | Knots | = | 57.6 | MPH |
| 55 | Knots | = | 63.4 | MPH |
| 60 | Knots | = | 69.1 | MPH |
| 65 | Knots | = | 74.9 | MPH |
| 70 | Knots | = | 80.6 | MPH |
| 75 | Knots | = | 86.4 | MPH |
| 80 | Knots | = | 92.2 | MPH |
| 85 | Knots | = | 97.9 | MPH |
| 90 | Knots | = | 103.7 | MPH |
| 95 | Knots | = | 109.4 | MPH |
| 100 | Knots | = | 115.2 | MPH |
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Doesn’t this 500mb height anomaly look an awful lot like last year?
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Thankfully the GFS ensemble gives me comfort tonight as it shows reamplification in the 7 through 16 day. Note the Atlantic ridge/Europe trough…
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
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