It’s been a cold and often snowy period from the Rockies through Midwest to East Coast this month and recently the focus of snowfall has been across the Northeast and will once again be the focus this upcoming weekend. While this morning saw another sub 0 low in Chicago, the first December with 2 or more sub 0 since 2008, it was also the coldest start across the snow covered Northeast. Today will be coldest yet with highs from DC to Boston stuck in the 20s. Tomorrow morning should see teens.

This weekend has yet another snow producer on the way from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to New England with a further 1-3, locally 3-6 inch snow from Kansas City through St Louis, Pittsburgh to Philadelphia and New York City.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow projections through the next 72 hrs.

Once that system is through, we see more arctic air drain out of Canada but warming takes places into early and mid next week.

Check out the latest ECMWF 500mb/850 temps through the next few days and notice the retreat of the very cold air but it never really leaves the Northern Plains but in the heart and East of the country, there is some good relief. While it warms up, I want you to pay attention to the later of the 10 day period and notice how some really cold air drops into the Northern Plains.

Fri 13

Sun 15

Tue 17

Thu 19

Sun 22

The CFSv2 shows the retreat of arctic air next week which will give folks across the Central/southern Plains, Midwest and East a chance to thaw out but as you can see, however modelling is trending more and more towards the first significant northern blocking week 3-4 and surface temperatures dramatically drop over the central US as a result. While it’s been very cold, we may have far worse to come in the period between Christmas and through the first week of January coming up.

Below is the CFSv2 500mb height anomalies through the next 4 weeks and notice the brief pullback of cold, especially in the East but by week 3-4 the arctic dramatically warms with a strong Alaska to Greenland connection.

Week 1-2

Week 3-4

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US temperature anomalies off the CFSv2

Week 1-2

Notice the warming over Alaska right over top of Arctic Canada! This drives the strongest push of arctic/Siberian air straight down the Plains right around Christmas. This plunge of significant cold could be the strongest since the major arctic outbreak of January 2004 when temps hit -50 in Minnesota (-24 in Minneapolis) and 0 in New York City.

Week 3-4

Coldest Winter Since 2009-10 Likely From Northern Plains To Mid-Atlantic

Despite the BRIEF pullback of arctic air next week, it never really warms up proper across the Northern Rockies and Plains, the more substantial thaw will be over the East but even here, any warm-up appear to have a relatively short or limited shelf life and arctic air simply continues to build over Canada and then dives south as heights rise across Alaska and Arctic Canada.

Here’s the current snow cover across North America compared to this time last year. All that highly reflective white will help retain energy within the arctic air mass hanging over Canada and the Northern US.

Wed 11 Dec, 2013

Wed 12 Dec, 2012

The overall trend strongly suggests a colder winter and on par with 2000-01, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2009-10 overall from the Northern Rockies/Plains to Mid-Atlantic and Southeast but ridge may try to hold over Florida, so expect more back and fourth here in the Southeast with wild back and fourths in temperature.

The CFSv2 monthly temps show colder than normal from the Northern Plains to Southeast this month and much the same in January too. What a different winter to last year!

CFS also shows cold in January

850 temp anomalies

Surface temp anomalies

 

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