The upcoming week continues to be on track for turning progressively colder with further threats of snow. In fact there could be quite the covering across many parts over the next 96 hours as the low takes it’s sweet old time sliding east and as it’s slow to move, this allows time for the cold coming back in to catch up with the moisture bring thrown in, add in upslope effect and you’ve got sizeable totals for some if not many from now through Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday it turns more settled but by then the coldest air in in place bringing the return of bitterly cold nights, especially where the snow lies.

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6+ Inches Of Over The Next 5 Days

If you look at last week, remember that low to the SSW of the UK and Ireland which told you to look for before the models even showed anything. It of course threw moisture up into the arctic air that was diving all the way to the South Coast from Scandinavia. This upcoming week period is very similar only the heaviest snows rather than being in the far South, will be across the Pennines and Southern Uplands. Pretty much every day from now through Wednesday could see 1-2, perhaps even 2-4 inches, so totalling 8 to 12 inches in a few spots over the next 72 hours. By the way, look out tonight if driving across Trans-Pennine or Southern Upland routes, could see an additional 2 or 3 inches following yesterday’s near 6 inch dumping at Drumalbin, Lanarkshire. Increasing winds will drive moisture and colder air in from the east. Boy what an amazing endgame to this winter right?

The fact the boundary is further north this week compared to last means it doesn’t look as cold across the far south this time but really look out from Manchester northwards. I would be surprised if much of Scotland, and northern England didn’t see anywhere from a covering near sea level to as much as 6 inches or more over higher parts through the next 5 days. Some may see even more, especially the upper reaches of the Pennines, Southern Uplands and Grampians.

Even southern parts, you could see snow but the bulk of the moisture combined with coldest air (greatest clash) looks further north.

The first half to the upcoming workweek is cold and unsettled. Milder in the south through early week but all areas get a lot colder mid week on!

Here’s a look at the GFS snow projections through the next 102 hours. Notice the greatest amounts are over the Pennines, Southern Uplands with the most over the Grampians.

36 hrs

102 hrs

With the warm, moist spinning around the centre of circulation and the low positioned over the Midlands and South, this keeps the focus of moisture from the south Pennines northwards and as this moisture streams in, the cold will continue to feed in from Scandinavia as the system heads into the Low Countries and France.

Here’s the surface chart by 48 hours or Tuesday

Notice the low now pushing into the Netherlands and NE France while moisture continues to feed both moisture and cold into Scotland, northern England. Also notice the 528 thickness line diving south over England and wraping into the backside of the low. This shows colder air wrapping in on the backside of the low. The 522 line is across northern Scotland,

By Wednesday you can see the low off the chart, the 522 line now down into northern England and the 528 near to the South Coast while a surface high builds in.

Even by Wednesday, there’s plenty of moisture over the Pennines so snows could well still be falling heavily..

By Thursday a 1018mb surface high is in place and notice the lack of moisture over the UK with nice low thicknesses indicating the very cold air in place (below). Folks the stage is set for more tremendously cold nights over that snow pack and we could very well set records as well as rival our coldest temperature of the winter. We got mighty close last week and we’re sure to get close to it again this upcoming week if this plays out which I think it will.

Here’s the 850mb temperatures for the same time! This shows the level of cold in place and snow covering the ground will certainly make full use of this blast of arctic air.

So, the latest model runs are quite clear that our low will slide into Europe and by doing so, things should settle somewhat from mid week on as isobars draw apart. As the system heads ESE, it draws much colder, continental air west from Scandinavia into the UK and Ireland. Like last week, after the snowfall that cold surface high should work with the freshly laid white blanket to produce some January-level cold nights.

Don’t be surprised to see more lows into the -10 to -13C range this week again. Amazing to think this could be a repeat of last week and we’re now entering the second half of March.

Battle Between Spring & Arctic Air

What’s interesting about the upcoming week’s pattern is there will be a daily struggle between spring-like warming and arctic air. What I mean by that is, each and every day, with the increasing sun angle as well as earlier sunrise, later sunset and the stronger sunshine which equals more reaching penetrating the surface. This creates a fight between the natural warming that wants to occur at this time of year verses the arctic air wanting to fight on. Despite an arctic air mass in place and the frigid nights, the sun wins by day unless you’ve an icy wind, cloud and snow on the ground, that way you may fail to hit freezing but where sunny, winds are light and the ground is bare, 10C is very likely.

Any snow which falls will most certainly shrink fast because of that natural late March warming. The sun is simply too strong at this time of year to not have impact and even with cloud cover and even if it’s snowing hard, the higher angled sun and ultimately stronger energy beaming through the clouds, will surpress the snows impacts, compared to say back in January.

I do expect eastern and even central towns and cities from Manchester north (maybe even the South too) for at least some snow accumulation this week, the amount of snow which falls will very much depend on how much can stay on the ground. In higher terrain areas and where the sun is slower to reach, the snow should stick around through much if not all of the upcoming week. Parts of the North Pennines and Southern Uplands have already received quite the blanketing through this weekend and should see further accumulations early this week and it’s at night, under clear skies, light winds and all that snowcover, where we’ll see some bitter cold settle in. It’s still possible to see the UK’s coldest temperature yet.

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