As forecasted, the snow arrived last night whittening many parts of Scotland and Northern England and although it’s been melting through today, a cold night tonight will help freeze the remaining snow on the ground and thus, slow warming through tomorrow will result in a slower melting process, so this snow should linger through this week. It will help keep nights colder, especially after tonight where clear skies by mid week will turn clear widely.
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The mid week period looks to see the return of some much colder air as a southbound front pulls down colder air. While turns cooler tomorrow, by Wednesday much of Britain may struggle to hit 5C and a mere 1-2C in the North. The northerly flow behind the front could bring further snow and according to both GFS and ECMWF, snow will cover most of mainland Scotland and Northern England down to the north suburbs of Manchester. The latest run of the GFS turns Britain and most of Ireland white within 72 hours. While I would love to see this, I think it’s overdone and the ECM’s less bold approach is more likely. I guess you never know.
Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday nights may be the coldest of the season so far with combination of cold days which give way to clear skies and light winds at night and along with light snow cover, I expect the first -10C for sheltered parts of Scotland. Even the Central Lowlands, where snow remains, we may see -6 to -8C.
So, do we have any more snow-producing fronts on the way? The answer is yes, I think so!
Below is the snow projections off both the GFS and ECMWF for not only a system pushing in by late week but they include next week and the next 10 days.
Tues (24 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Thurs (72 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Sat (120 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Mon (168 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
The latest run of the GFS practically covers the UK with snow within 72 hours. Check out these charts below for the period from tomorrow through next Monday. Even much of Ireland and all of Northern Ireland goes white!!
GFS
Tues ( 24 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Thurs (72 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Sat (114 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Mon (168 hrs)
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
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Hi Mark,
I would love to see a daily chart showing the position of the
Jet Stream, is this not possible.
Regards.
Anthony Perry (Bristol)
Likewise I’m sure these models are blowing things out of proportion. I notice the scale goes from 0.1 to 24. Does this indicate mm, cm, m, inches, or feet of snow on ground?
Right now it is barely cold enough to support long lasting (several days) of widespread snow cover in Scotland (i.e. near the whole of Scotland) yet alone the whole of the UK.
So far this winter to me does not compare with 2010, 2011. It is cold, it is frosty, but just not as cold or snowy so far here in Scotland.
Am I wrong? Only time will tell. I need to make snow man soon!
Marks idea is that the worst of the cold will be in January. All along he has said that December will most likely be a battle between the mild air from the Atlantic and the cold, arctic air. So far he has been right. Where I live(Denmark) the country is currently split in two halves with Northern Jutland drowning in snow and the the southern half with temps just above freezing and most of the snow from Sunday has now melted. But if the heart of the cold is to come later in the winter I can live with that. Besides this December is much better than last year, for sure;)
Great video as ever Mark. I was wondering about snow cover and radiational cooling. Is the extra cooling effect of snow cover of an area factored into the models temperature predictions? For example the MET are saying 3 degrees for here tomorrow. Do you think we can knock off a degree or 2 because of the sustained snow cover or is that already factored in to the temp predictions? The reason I ask is they are predicting very heavy rain for Thursday but only 2 to 3 degrees. Could it be that it might be colder than that because of snow cover and therefore heavy snow? certainly the uppers are cold enough.
I look forward to checking the NOAA snow and ice cover maps when they update over the next few days. Should be leaps forward in Europe.
Great commentary…wish everyone had the passion for their jobs that you do! that’s what makes this so enjoyable to watch every day!