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The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]
The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]
After a cold October and November for much of the Lower 48, December started off on a similarly cold note with the aid of a retrograding blocking high from the Canadian Archipelago to Alaska. However, as you can see from the below 30 day animation, around the 10th saw a 360 flip with ridge replaced […]
The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]
If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!
The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/status/1074321968948760576 The amplified MJO is […]
It may be a mild pattern now across a large portion of the continent but the models are seeing the return to a colder, snowier pattern east of the Rockies as we approach Christmas. In fact much of the continent goes from red to blue within the next 2 weeks. Notice in the GFS ensemble […]
Bob Henson · December 7, 2018, 3:47 PM EST Six eastern U.S. states joined Texas in slogging through their soggiest autumn in records going back to 1895, according to monthly and seasonal data released Friday by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Every state from the Great Plains to the East Coast, except […]
A trough of cold, dense air covers a large swath of the US from Texas to Atlantic. A significant storm system is tracking east on the southern edge of this trough through the southern tier this weekend bringing a mix of heavy rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain. There are reports that Lubbock, TX has […]
As we head into mid December the pattern is shifting. After the weeks of warmth up in Alaska and cold across much of the Lower 48, we about to see a switch with +AO/NAO. The big flip comes this weekend into next week as heights crash over AK/N Pacific while Pacific winds begin to sweep […]
The latest low crossed the central US over the weekend with a distinct warm and cold sector. Heavy snow fell in a swathe from Nebraska to Wisconsin while further south and east, warm, humid air fueled severe weather as far north as Illinois. https://twitter.com/DevinWxChase/status/1069422577225998337 On the cold side of the front, upwards of a foot […]
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