October ends and November begins with a deep Icelandic trough/Euro high with a predominantly mild, moist WSW flow as per week 1 of the CFSv2.

The below total accumulated rainfall displays the above nicely with wettest where exposed to the Atlantic rainbands. A windy period too.

With possible strengthening of the Euro ridge, I suspect a degree of ‘Atlantic deflection’ with lows very much forced up north to the west of UK/Ireland week 2.

Through the opening week to 10 days, the remnants of Melissa rather than being a fly in the ointment, is more a reinforcement of the above in which this setup is a fairly reflective of phases 3-4-5 of the MJO pattern for early/mid November.

We’ve observed a pretty amplified rotation through the IO, now MC.

I feel pretty confident on a generally mild, wet (wet at least in west/southwest facing areas) first half to November.

There’s quite high uncertainty mid-month on with two unknowns . 1) where the MJO goes as well as the happenings up in the stratosphere as well as troposphere over the pole.

There’s model support both in temp and mean zonal wind within the strat for substantial pressure put on the polar vortex. Whether this is due to an eastward shift of the MJO into Pacific or not, I’m not sure.

Either way, even the CFSv2 sees increased blocking both within mid-lats and further north.

When looking at the 30-day off both GFS ensemble and ECM ensemble, they show a distinctly Atlantic trough over ridge setup over the Atlantic meaning mild and wet but this IS a mean.

That being said both ECM and CFSv2 seasonals show more Atlantic/Greenland high pressure.

Note the eastward progress of upward motion (active MJO wave) into the Pacific… AKA the colder phases!

The ECM sees that progression into phases 6 possibly 7, 8. This would be effective LATER in November (20th on) I must stress.

Is the weakening of the mean zonal winds and warming from Eurasia across the Pacific into North America in response to the MJO?

Mild, wet first half followed by colder, drier second half to November? Yes with potential for colder means snow chances increase.

The transition from mild (at times very mild) to colder as the month progresses is what I am going with but the question is what wins out overall? Like October, near average to slightly above temps and variable rainfall?

CFSv2 weeklies firm on that mid month switch from wet to dry, perhaps wetter final week.

Here’s what the main models show for temp/rainfall anomaly across Europe through 29th Nov.

My Verdict

Near average temps but Wetter Ireland, Wetter N/W, Drier S/E UK. Drier Than Average, Warmer than average for much of Europe!

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