Yet another meteorological summer draws to a close and it appears to be bowing out briefly warm and settled then unsettled (as of 22nd Aug) courtesy of Ex-Hurricane Erin, once a Cat 5.
August, as expected was the more up and down month of the three and largely but not exclusively driven by Atlantic tropical activity.
As a new season dawns, will we continue to see the tropics drive the mid latitudes? Stay tuned for my Sept Outlook (due for release at the close of the month).
It’s been another quite remarkable summer for prediction as well as warm, dry for the most part, especially Southern UK at least while more changeable the further north/west as is typically the case.
Let’s start off with what was said on 25th May: Europe Summer 2025 Forecast
Here was my thinking for the entire June-August, 2025 period.
Excerpt from the forecast…
In my opinion, when looking at past ‘dry springs’ there’s no definitive evidence supporting either hot, dry or cool, wet. It’s a bit of a guess. However, combining record warm SSTA’s particularly just west of Europe, dry ground widely, neutral ENSO and likely slightly busier than normal Atlantic hurricane season, it points to a highly volatile, varied and potentially extreme summer of weather swings. 2015 and 2020 comes to mind.
The unusually warm surrounding waters (compared to normal) and dry ground could support some notable heat surges/Spanish plumes but also a recipe for serious flood events, especially in the form of thunderstorm activity. A couple of lengthy ‘hot & dry spells’ is expected along with equally low pressure dominance. The lean towards low NW, high SE on the whole with fluctuation of both.
There’s past evidence suggesting a drought summer for a large swathe of continental Europe possibly extending into England with that early stratospheric warming as shown in the above tweet from World Climate Service
With cooler eastern tropical Atlantic, my hunch is the Azores high could be stronger than normal through the first half of summer with frequent northward extension in June. At the peak of this summer’s heat, I think 38-40, locally 42C is possible for France including north, 34-36C SE England with 28-30C widely England, Wales and Low Countries, possibly 30-31C Scottish Borders.
Key Points
Warmer, Drier spells compared to last year
Chance of hot & dry periods in each of the 3 summer months.
Potentially turning more unsettled through mid to late season
Long hot, dry summer likely for much of central and Mediterranean Europe, Wetter Balkans & SE.
Coolest, wettest Iceland, NW UK & Ireland, drier further south and east.
The Verdict
Warmer-Than-Normal for much of Europe (Except NW). Wetter-Than-Normal Iceland, Scotland, Northern Ireland, NW Rep of Ireland, S Norway, Sweden & SE Europe, Drier-Than-Normal MUCH of Central & Western Europe Including much of England, Wales, SE Rep of Ireland…
What Happened…
Actual 500mb geopotential heights 1 June through 21 August, 2025.
Temp & rainfall anomaly 21 May through 21 August
These seasonal forecasts are always focused mainly on UK/Ireland. As predicted, it turned out an overall warmer than average summer with a WETTER NW, DRIER SE UK with warmer further south and east you went. Hotter, drier into near continent as well as central and southern Europe…
There was a cooler, wetter period in the heart of summer for central Europe and a relaxation of the heat across Spain, Portugal, France, Germany and through the Med.
Being ultra critical, It was perhaps warmer than predicted in NW UK with high pressure in the means further north…
Albeit I did expect surges of heat each of the three summer months for ALL but mixed between high and low pressure.
The mention above of ‘drought summer’ proved correct with warm, high pressure feedback…
How it started vs early August.
Early August
MONTH BY MONTH BREAKDOWN
FORECAST
June
Potentially driest of the 3 month period with a lengthy spell of high pressure, above average temperatures, below average rainfall for much western and central Europe including UK and Ireland. The month could commence unsettled but a change to more settled heading towards June 10th with peak of the dry, warm or hot spell between 10-20th before a return to lower pressure late month.
Near avg rain Scot, NI, ROI, avg to below avg Eng and Wales.
Max temps: 31-33C England, 28-30C Wales, 28-30C Scot, 27-28C NI, ROI
ACTUAL
It was a fairly unsettled June for most away from S/E England where it was hottest on record. There was a deep trough over Iceland and strong ridge over the Med with battle in between. Heat was persistent and record-breaking near the core of the ridge but frequent heat extended up through France, Low Countries into S UK.
While heat dominated the near continent, there was one notable push of warmth around 19-21 June with 43.2C recorded in Spain, 41C Portugal, 37C France, 33.2C at London’s Kew Gardens while Ireland recorded it’s warmest day since 2018 with 29.6C at Roscommon. Warmest day for the rest of the UK.
The end of June produced Spain and Portugal’s hottest June day on record with 46C and 46.6C respectively. Multiple June records fell across France.
Multiple days exceeded for SE/E England 30C. Max temps: Eng 33.2C, Wales 30.8C Scot 28.9C, NI 29.5C
FORECAST
July
Another somewhat mixed month with back and forth pressure swings containing decent summer heat. With a lot of ‘warmer than average’ fuel in the surrounding seas, thunderstorms could be lively with frequent lightning, gusty wind and hail storms with flash flooding an issue especially to end a week to 10-day ‘hot spell’. Cooler, wetter and windier for Scotland and Northern Ireland but not without some warm to hot days.
Avg to slightly above avg rain much of UK and Ireland, Wettest NW.
Max temps: 32-34C England/Wales, 27-29, possibly 30C Scot, NI, ROI.
ACTUAL
A mixed month with high and dry giving way to thundery spells and low pressure. The mean ridge shifted further north compared to June providing the longest ‘summery period’ to more northern areas of UK and Ireland as well as Iceland and Scandinavia where an astonishing heatwave occurred. Somewhat more unsettled Spain, Portugal, France and Central Europe.
Multiple days exceeding 30C more widely over Eng. Max temps: 35.8C Eng, 33C Wales, 32.2C Scot, 30C NI
FORECAST
August
Depending upon the MJO position/strength and tropical activity in the Atlantic, we could see everything in August with major heat surges and or a lengthy hot, dry spell due to re-curving tropical systems reinforcing the high over Europe but also some lows generating unseasonably cool, wet and windy days. Timing of high vs low impossible to say but highly variable month is possible.
Avg to below avg rainfall Eng, Wales, S ROI, avg to above Scot, NI, N ROI.
Max temps: 34-36C SE Eng & near continent, 29C Scot, 28C NI & ROI.
ACTUAL
Another largely warmer as well as drier than average month for the majority of the UK as well as Ireland. Like in June and July, we saw heatwave conditions for most. Temps again exceeded 30C in SE but also further north where we observed the hottest August temps since 2003 for N England and Scotland.
Further record, even all-time record heat was achieved across Spain, Portugal and France.
Ahead of the 10-18th ‘hot spell’, the month started stormy with record wind gusts and low pressure courtesy of Storm Floris. A mixed month driven by Atlantic tropical activity.
Like, June and July, there was a cycle of low and high pressure. Warm and cool, Dry and wet but the constant lean to warmer, drier compared to average.
Max temps: to be confirmed…
Summary…
All in all, despite the usual variation at times, summer ’25 was very warm and largely dry for most of the UK and Ireland. Sure we had mixed spells with cooler, wetter days but high pressure and warmth was never too far away and always made a sharp comeback each of the three months. The dry spring sure played a significant role in the level of heat and perhaps persistency of heat throughout this summer.
While we did see relatively isolated flash flood events, if I was to fault the forecast, it would be that I thought we would see more, especially given the level of warmth in our surrounding waters and at times amount of heat within the atmosphere..
Iberia, France has likely witnessed it’s hottest summer with heat records tumbling throughout the season despite some cooler, wetter periods.
Italy, Greece, Turkey up into the Balkans has witnessed quite a variable summer but when hot, it was really hot and this was firmly anticipated in my prediction.
SCORE: 8.5 out of 10
In my 15 years of long range prediction, this has been the most persistently accurate period (2023, 2024, 2025) with high accuracy summer forecasts.
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Sryan Bruen
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