Another February and meteorological winter is drawing to an end. A month and season milder and drier than average for UK and Ireland, another very mild winter for most of Europe but colder February for central and southeast.

February temp anomaly through the 26th.

Looks like January and February combined was average to slightly below average UK/Ireland.

Despite average to below average January/February, the mild December tips the balance milder than average for the 90 day period.

Like in January (not so much December) we observed swings between mild and cold during February with rotation from mild to cold back to mild phases of the MJO which drove the appropriate +/- AO response.

Less so the NAO due to more of a La Nina ocean-atmosphere coupling but we did have a favourable Scandi high setup for cold mild February but the easterly occurred without the presence of real cold over the continent and without the long fetch connecting Siberia with UK it was a modest brand chill.

The mid/late February cold spell was Europe’s coldest of winter.

7-day temp anomaly increments

Front

Middle

End

As winter progressed, so La Nina became more established through the equatorial Pacific. The combination of CP La Nina, solar maximum and west QBO, likely helped reinforce what’s been a strong polar vortex within the stratosphere and a hemispheric pattern favourable for N America rather than Europe cold.

The winter forecast called for above average and while the timing of mild vs cold spells may have been off, the overall idea was good. Check out the winter forecast here. BELOW is what happened…

Meteorological winter ends and spring begins milder than average as per latest GFS ensemble (below) with +AO/NAO (above).

Met Office: Two named storms and a typical mix of winter weather: Winter 2024/25 statistics

Excerpt

Winter 2024/25 closed out on a bright and sunny note for most, although the same cannot be said for the majority of the season. Provisional Met Office statistics show that this winter saw below average rainfall, below average sunshine, and above average temperatures for the UK.

No significant meteorological records were broken, however the seasonal statistics mask two high-profile events, with Storm Darragh in December and Storm Éowyn in January both warranting Met Office Red National Severe Weather Warnings for their significant risk to life.

Below average rainfall, especially for Northern Ireland

As winter drew to a close, many places were still feeling rather soggy following a weekend of heavy rain, but after a wetter than average December and a drier than average January and February, winter concluded with 11% less rainfall than its long-term meteorological average. The southern half of the UK experienced the wettest conditions, with England and Wales both recording 94% of their average rainfall over the season. Northern Ireland though saw far less rainfall, with just 70% of their average.

Above average temperatures, especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland

Winter started off on a warm note, with December 2024 the fifth warmest December on record for the UK. January however, brought below-average temperatures, with snow, widespread frosts and freezing fog. However, with above average temperatures in February, Winter 2024/25 has seen above average temperatures for the UK, with a mean temperature of 4.6 °C, which is just over half a degree above the long-term meteorological average. There has of course been much regional variation, with Wales and England seeing closer to average figures and Scotland and Northern Ireland being warmer than average.

Lacking in sunshine, except for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland

January 2025 was the fifth sunniest on record for the UK. But an incredibly dull December (seeing just over half its average sunshine) and a below average February, pulled winter’s figures down to 6% less sunshine than its long-term meteorological average. This wasn’t the story for everywhere though, with Northern Ireland and Scotland seeing the best of the sunshine, with 103% and 104% of their respective averages. Northern Scotland in particular enjoyed seeing 121% of its average sunshine across the winter.

Two named storms

Winter 2024/25 saw two named storms, which both warranted the Met Office issuing red National Severe Weather Warnings for their significant risk to life.

Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the 2024/25 storm season, brought very strong winds to western parts of England and Wales in early December. A red warning for wind was issued, with wind gusts of 96mph recorded at Berry Head in Devon and 93mph at Capel Curig in Wales. A number of deaths were reported over the weekend as Storm Darragh impacted the UK. Arriving just two weeks after Storm Bert led to widespread flooding, Storm Darragh also brought heavy rain and concern about further flooding in areas affected by Storm Bert.

Storm Éowyn, the fifth storm of the 2024/25 season so far, hit the UK in late January. It was the UK’s most powerful windstorm in over a decade, bringing red warnings, severe impacts and, tragically, fatalities. Northern Ireland and Scotland’s Central Belt experienced the brunt of this storm with winds gusting widely at well over 80mph. The highest wind gust recorded in the UK was 100mph at Drumalbin in Lanarkshire and a weather station on Tiree, Inner Hebrides, recorded the UK’s lowest pressure reading since storm naming was introduced in autumn 2015.

Met Office Scientist Emily Carlisle said: “This winter has seen a typical mix of UK winter weather conditions, with a mix of wet and windy, but also cold and calm conditions. This has resulted in a season where no significant climate records have been broken, but the statistics do mask two high-profile events, with Storm Darragh in December and Storm Éowyn in January both warranting red National Severe Weather Warnings for their significant risk to life.”  

February 2025 Monthly Weather Report

Highest Maximum 17.0°C on 21st at Hull, East Park (Humberside, 2mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 0.1°C on 8th at Lentran (Inverness-shire, 146mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 11.9°C on 21st at London, St James’s Park (Greater London, 5mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -9.6°C on 14th at Aviemore (Inverness-shire, 228mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -12.6°C on 14th at Aviemore (Inverness-shire, 228mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 111.2mm on 23rd at White Barrow (Devon, 445mAMSL)
Most Sunshine
10.2hr on 28th at Shobdon Airfield (Hereford & Worcester, 99mAMSL) and
Preston, Cove House (Dorset, 44mAMSL) and St Athan (South Glamorgan,
49mAMSL) and Exeter Airport No 2 (Devon, 27mAMSL)
Highest Gust 69Kt 79mph on 21st at Capel Curig No 3 (Gwynedd, 216mAMSL)
also on 23rd at Capel Curig No 3 (Gwynedd, 216mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 104Kt 120mph on 23rd at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
4cm on 18th at Fettercairn, Glensaugh No 2 (Kincardineshire, 171mAMSL)

My February Stats

HIGHLIGHTS

All-time record dry month!

Cooler Feb compared to previous 2.

Most February nights at or below 0°C (14).

UK, Ireland & Europe & Global Highlights

4th Feb: Obihiro, Japan records 120cm or 47 inches of snow within 12 hours setting a new national record.

5th Feb: Rivadavia, Argentina records a temperature of 46.5C which is the highest for anywhere in South America in February.

7th Feb: Huge pressure difference over Norway on the same day with 964mb low over Svalbard while a 1050 high is centred over southern Norway. Winds gusting 99 mph in between!

7th Feb: Exceptional warmth up into Arctic Norway with temperatures as high of +12C.

9th Feb: In southern China, Shanghai/Chongming records it’s coldest February temperature 2nd coldest of all-time at -9.0C.

12th Feb: Another historic day of heat with *2* state records broken: Oodnadatta 48.7c- HOTTEST FEBRUARY DAY ON RECORD IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA & tied 9th hottest nationally!! 0.5c above record. Birdsville 47.5c- HOTTEST FEBRUARY DAY ON RECORD IN QUEENSLAND! 0.3c above record.

13th Feb: -50.9°F/-46.1°C at Peter Sinks, #Utah. 95°F/35.0°C at Harlingen, #Texas. Even though Peter Sinks is a sinkhole, this is a remarkable difference of 145.9°F/81.1°C observed today in the #USA.

15th Feb: Gallinas, Mexico record’s the entire northern hemisphere’s hottest temperature for so early in the calendar year with 43.5C, aided by powerful foehn effect.

15th Feb: Penang records a minimum of 27.9C which is Malaysia’s hottest February night on record.

17th Feb: Extreme record breaking heat for parts of Brazil with 42C in the state of Rio De Janeiro. 41.6C in Niteroi across the bay from the city of Rio.

17th Feb: A temperature of -41.1C was recorded at Litworowy Kocioł, a sinkhole in Poland’s High Tatras (elev 1794m). Very short POR (June 2022) but one of Poland’s lowest unofficial readings ever.

18th Feb: Extreme cold in #Canada! -48.8°C Key Lake, SK , only 0.2°C from its monthly record [data since 1976] *but* its March record is even lower (-50.9°C, provincial March record). -40.4°C Regina with a high of -28.8°C. -42.3°C Roblin, MB. Windchill down do -55!

18-20th Feb: Extreme cold dives down the US Great Plains with coldest February air in decades. -45F in Antelope Valley of North Dakota,-34F in Nebraska,-17F in Kansas,-3F in Texas.

19th Feb: Cold night in Central Europe with down to -30.1°C in Czech Republic , -19.4°C in Slovenia and -19.3°C in Austria . Also -27.4°C in the sinkhole of Conca Prevala (1,787 m)

21st Feb: Record February warmth for parts of Western Europe including Antwerp, Belgium 19.5C, in Netherlands, 19.0 Woensdrecht,16.3 Lauwersoog 16.7 Leeuwarden,17.6 Marknesse, In Germany, 16.9 Lingen,15.3 Norderney and 13.4C in Isles of Scilly.

22nd Feb: Record February warmth for all of the Nordland region of Norway with a temperature of 13.4C at Sandnessjoen.

23rd Feb: The tiny island of Hopen in Svalbard recorded it’s highest February temperature on record of 4.8C meanwhile Asahi, Japan recorded it’s coldest February temperature of -6.9C.

24th Feb: Record warmth across Europe’s far north with 11.2C Veiholmen in northern Norway. In Lapland, February highest minimum and highest maximum are beaten. Tromso max of +8.5C followed by a minimum of +5.3C,both new February records. Meanwhile impressive late season cold affects Romania and SE Europe. Bucharest airport (Baneasa) – 3 day in a row -14.8/-17.1 and-16.8 °C (lowest mins for late Feb since 1985), helped by 41 cm of snow on 19th February.

25th Feb: Astonishing 50C difference in night temps over Iran with -25.5C vs +23.9C which is one of the countries warmest winter nights.

26th Feb: Middle East cold wave. #Turkey -33.8°C Göle -32.6°C Horasan -31.8°C Erzurum #Iran -26.9°C Tochal Mtn -25.7°C Alvars -24.4°C Kheyrabad #Iraq -8.3°C Rabiah #Cyprus -12°C Mt. Olympus -6.2°C Lefkoniko lowest temperature in Cyprus since 1964! Very cold also in #Israel with down to -11.2°C at Mt. Hermon. -6.1°C in Bar’am. @weather2day_il -5.0°C in Turaif in Saudi Arabia , very cold for late February [March record is -6.0°C].

Mild 1st Half, Colder 2nd Half to March?

The medium to longer range models support Atlantic dominance through at least mid March with perhaps some minor fluctuation between milder and colder than average.

There’s a degree of uncertainty beyond mid March with another burst of warming within the stratosphere which could attempt to build pressure back up into the higher latitudes beyond March 20th.

This could bring a chillier end to March if 1) it occurred and 2) the ridge/trough sets up in the right place.

Obviously by the time we reach the latter half of March, days are considerably longer and sun stronger so any ‘cold spell’ would be far less than several weeks back.

Therefore I see an overall milder than average March with potential for wet and windy spells, especially if the MJO manages to find itself in phases 2-3.

Below is the latest CFSv2 and ECMWF seasonal for March and it’s a mild and wet solution from both, I tend to agree with these given largely cross model agreement on a mainly +AO/NAO pattern through the upcoming month.

Warmer than average and for Ireland/W UK/Scandi wetter than average.

The Verdict

A Likely Milder, Wetter Than Average Month for UK & Ireland (wettest west & north Europe)…

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