A quite amazing November draws to an end. For UK, from warmest, driest first half to the month to significantly colder 2nd half which has made for a near average and for some, colder than average month.
Europe has seen wild swings too with Iceland perhaps witnessing the most outrageous of all followed closely by France and Spain with overnight temps of 26-27C at the same time extreme blizzard conditions affected parts of Turkey.
From new all-time November highs across Ireland to coldest ‘so early’ for UK (-11.2C) since 1998 and coldest November night (-12.4C) and most significant UK November snow since 2010, it’s been a crazy month!
Europe temp anomaly through the first 10 days of November.
Credit: Weatherbell
Last 10 days
Credit: Weatherbell
Month-to-date
Credit: Weatherbell
It feels like each and every month we’re witnessing all the more dramatic of swings between warm and cold, wet and dry.
September, October and now November, these rather abrupt swings can be nicely correlated to the rotation of the MJO and response with the AO/NAO. That even extends back to August when we witnessed a record +NAO followed by record -NAO in September.
Strong -NAO in last 2 weeks of Sept, 1st two weeks of October followed by strong +NAO 2nd half of October through first half of November and now beginning to recover from the latest strong -NAO.
The cold just witnessed was seen by myself and not the models back at the end of October with the anticipated phase 7-8 and lag.
I’ve also noticed Europe turns cold then eastern North America follows and it appears the strongest arctic outbreak for late November beginning December since 2010 is underway for the eastern US.
The UK & Ireland is seeing a yo yo in temperature. From +10C nights to -10C with sub freezing days to +14C as Atlantic low pressure battles with chilly highs but the question is, how’s this pattern evolving into December?
UK, Ireland & Europe Highlights
Most of the Stats provided below, courtesy of Thierry Goose.
1st Nov: At an elevation of 3571m, #Jungfraujoch, Switzerland did not drop below 0C for the first time in November. A maximum of 4.8C was also the highest November temperature on record. Records date back to 1961.
4th Nov: Barcelona, Spain receives 150mm of rain within 4 hours.
6th Nov: Exceptionally high temperatures in #Ireland ! 19.1°C in #Dublin-Phoenix Park & Finner Camp are only 1.0°C below the November national record set in Dooks on Nov. 1, 2015.
18.4°C Casement Aerodrome
18.1°C Claremorris
17.9°C Gurteen
17.7°C Mullingar
17.5°C Valentia
According to Met Eireann, 11 new monthly records across Ireland.
Credit: Met Eireann
8th Nov: New November record for Lapland in #Finland with 12.6°C in Inari, breaking the previous record of 11.0°C in Pello and Ylitornio in Nov. 1975).
8th Nov: 37.1°C La Aldea de San Nicolás/Tasarte (Gran Canaria) new November record for all Canary Islands , breaking the previous record by almost a full degree. 5th consecutive day over 34-35°C in #Morocco , like in Agadir, Taroudant or Tan-Tan. Unprecedented in Nov.
10th Nov: NEW NOVEMBER HEAT RECORD IN MADIERA: 31.0°C Funchal.
12th Nov: Extraordinary warmth in #Iceland 22.9°C Ólafsfjarðarvegur við Sauðanes [66°N] at midnight! This is only 0.3°C below the November national record set exactly 25 years ago.
22.3°C Akureyri
22.1°C Siglufjörður
22.0°C Hámundarstaðaháls
21.6°C Skjaldþingsstaðir
14th Nov: NEW NOVEMBER RECORD FOR #ICELAND ! 23.8°C Kvísker [64°N]!
This beats the previous November national record by 0.6°C [23.2°C Dalatangi, 1999]. This is higher than the *October national record*! World record high at this latitude so late in the year!
19th Nov: -11.2C recorded at Braemar, Aberdeenshire. Lowest UK temperature for so early since 1998.
In recent times: -18.0°C on Nov. 28, 2010
-13.2°C on Nov. 21, 2004
-12.1°C on Nov. 21, 2016, Nov. 30, 2008, Nov. 12, 1998 & Nov. 19, 1996
Nov. record: -23.3°C in 1919!
22nd Nov: Lots of snow in Central Europe, with some monthly records in 24 h in #Switzerland.
. 42 cm Lucerne 38 cm Glaris 30 cm Langnau 28 cm Zurich 44 cm Fraxern, #Austria 33 cm Pavlizečevo sedlo, #Slovenia
-12.0°C in #Denmark, lowest so early since 1971.
23rd Nov: Cold night in Central Europe.
#Switzerland -24.4°C Amburnex-Combe [1285 m] -19.0°C Hintergräppelen [1330 m] -18.6°C La Brévine [1050 m]
#Austria -12.8°C Weitensfeld [704 m] -10.8°C Völkermarkt-Goldbrunnhof Agr. College [406 m], lowest in November since 1975!
24th Nov: Exceptionally high temperatures in Western Europe, at record levels for late November.
Spain 27.4°C Colunga
France 26.4°C Benejacq
Germany 19.8°C Baden-Baden
Netherlands 19.1°C Ell
Belgium 18.8°C Kleine Brogel
UK 18.7°C Santon Downham
25th Nov: Exceptional overnight warmth (thanks to foehn effect) in France with 26.9°C Lasseube at 4:54 am. 24C throughout the overnight in SW France.
25th Nov: A new mainland Spain wind record of 146 mph was recorded at Mirador Del Cable, Elev 1910m asl in the Picos De Europa Mountains of N Spain.
25th Nov: Baden-Baden recorded a maximum of 22.3C, a new German record for the end of November.
MET OFFICE: November 2024: a month of two halves
November 2024 feels like a month of two halves. Mild, dry and gloomy at first, then storms, snow and heavy rain to close.
Credit: Met Office
Credit: Met Office
Autumn 2024 for UK
A wet Autumn for England, Dry Scotland
MET OFFICE: Rainfall totals for the UK this Autumn have fallen slightly below average, with 301.5mm falling across the period, 10% less than the long-term meteorological average for the season. England, however, has seen the most rainfall compared to average, with 300.3mm, which is 20% above its average. Scotland on the other hand, has seen a drier than average Autumn, with 284.0mm, 38% less than its average.
Autumn started off wet, with a succession of low-pressure systems bringing exceptionally heavy rainfall to southern and central England in the latter part of the month, and ten English counties experienced their wettest September on record. For Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire, September 2024 was the wettest calendar month the counties have experienced, in a series dating back to 1836.
Although there was some reprieve in October and an exceptionally dry start to November, heavy rain brought by Storm Bert helped to bring totals back up, especially to the south of the UK. Many places in the central/south of England, already with high totals from September, experienced more heavy rainfall.
Gloucestershire for example, has had its wettest Autumn since the series began in 1836, with 415.1mm, which is 74% more than its long-term meteorological average. Oxfordshire had its second wettest Autumn, with 348.6mm (72% more) and Bedfordshire its third with 304.5mm (70% more).
In comparison, seven places in Scotland, including Perth and Kinross, Angus and Stirling and Falkirk, have all recorded statistics within their top 10 driest Autumns since 1836.
Credit: Met Office
Credit: Met Office
November 2024 Monthly Weather Report
UK Met Office November 2024 Stats
Highest Maximum 18.8°C on 10th at Treknow (Cornwall, 100mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum -1.5°C on 27th at Balmoral (Aberdeenshire, 283mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 14.5°C on 7th at Poolewe (Ross & Cromarty, 6mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -12.4°C on 23rd at Kinbrace, Hatchery (Sutherland, 103mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -14.0°C on 19th at Braemar No 2 (Aberdeenshire, 327mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 126.0mm on 23rd at Treherbert, Tyn-y-waun (Mid Glamorgan, 259mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 7.9hr on 15th at Liscombe (Somerset, 348mAMSL)
Highest Gust 71Kt 82mph on 23rd at Capel Curig No 3 (Gwynedd, 216mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 98Kt 113mph on 25th at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
28cm on 22nd at Loch Glascarnoch (Ross & Cromarty, 269mAMSL)
My November Stats
Atlantic Low/Jet Stream v Azores High Followed by Retrogression?
Week 1 looks to start chilly if not cold followed by wet & windy if not stormy. The driving force is a stronger than normal Azores high trying to push north while an extended jet stream exiting the Southeast US will spread across the Atlantic and attempt the throw lows into UK and Ireland
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Week 2 appears to see the mean ridge back westwards from UK/Ireland suggesting a northwesterly flow resulting in a cool, showery regime.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Both ECM weeklies and GFS ensemble all support the above week 2 solution.
Golden question is, is this an indication of something colder and a return to more -AO and perhaps more so, -NAO towards mid-month? My beloved MJO is likely heading back towards the colder phases (if rotation continues that is!) by day 15. The risk would be a collapse within phases 4-5 which the GFS ensemble may be hinting at below.
While we’ve a stretched polar vortex to end November (responsible for cross polar flow into US), the PV core temp, structure and mean zonal wind all point to strengthening through much of December.
Credit: ECMWF
Note in the above ECMWF model spread, the mean zonal winds weaken significantly through the back half of the month. Perhaps the model seeing the return of ‘high latitude blocking’ and return of the -AO?
I am going to stick with my hunch and suggest we lean average, perhaps slightly ABOVE average Dec 1-20th considering strengthening PV and remembering the lag of the MJO. Even if we manage to see the upward motion return to the west and eventually central Pacific, there can be a week to 10 days before the atmosphere responds and therefore we’re likely talking nearer the week of Christmas, say 20th onward.
Keep in mind that back at the end of October, I actually hesitated with the cold prospect due to literally no models showing anything resembling a cold pattern.
So, a back and forth between mild and cool perhaps some storminess, esp through first 10 days with a battle between Atlantic low vs Azores high. Something cooler week 1 into 2 as the high backs west but perhaps doesn’t build up towards Greenland. So polar-maritime rather than arctic flow.
The jury is very much out mid month on and I wouldn’t want to go by the models much, especially CFSv2 but ECMWF hints at Atlantic towards Greenland blocking developing week 3 into 4.
I think we’ve a ‘slightly increased chance’ for colder, frostier and perhaps for some, snowy Christmas-New Year period. Let’s say a 60-40 in favour of snowy Christmas, esp Northern UK.
CFSv2 for December from a hemispheric view. Warm and wet for NW Europe.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Overall, Average to Slightly Above Average temperatures for UK/Ireland & W Europe, Colder SE Europe including Greece and Turkey, Near Average for UK/Ireland Rainfall!
ALSO SEE: Europe Winter Forecast 2024-25
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Ben Dolphin
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