Like Debby a week ago, Ernesto formed over unusually warm waters at an unusually far north location. About 1,000 miles southeast of Nova Scotia.

Despite crossing the sub-16C waters of the North Atlantic and accelerating in forward sweep, favourable atmospheric conditions allowed the system to remain tropical and only the 12th tropical cyclone within the satellite era to reach 50N. The last ‘still tropical’ system to reach 50N was Alberto back in 2000.

https://twitter.com/tropicstopics/status/1030658626514509824

However, as expected, transition to extratropical came this morning as Ernesto was absorbed by a frontal boundary.

The same boundary which swept refreshing Atlantic air across the UK and N France yesterday.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1030558281939312640

There’s good reason why it’s rare for fully tropical systems to survive this far north. 1) upper winds tend to tear apart closed, warm core lows, 2) fronts often reach them before getting anywhere near 50N and 3) waters become too cold.

Looks like a decent soaking and blustery night ahead tonight into tomorrow morning for much of Ireland and through the central swathe of the UK. Expect winds to be gusty and rain torrential at times.

Tags: ernesto uk