It’s been a very dry past 10 days for Scotland, Northern Ireland and N England as well as right across Scandinavia and the next 10 days could be equally as dry. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some, perhaps many places which see little to no rain over the next 10 days where high pressure remains strong overhead.

As for England and Wales, waves of moisture lifting north from lower pressure over Iberia will keep the shower and storm risk alive.

GFS total accumulated precipitation through the next 10 days.

The northerly blocking high will pulse and wobble but not burst and so incoming weather shall remain detoured to the south and north.

GFS ensemble

500mb height anomaly

Day 1-7

6-12

precipitation anomaly

Day 1-7

6-12

If that ridge was to persistent through the first half of June and the soils continue drying out, this could support some pretty hot weather in June, particularly for the driest areas.

Tags: dry spell