Welcome to my 8th annual summer forecast for Europe. As always, there are several global, regional and local factors which have been taken into consideration when putting together this forecast including the type of winter we’ve just observed.

Neutral to slight positive ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)

We currently have a slight negative but neutral ENSO index with the models developing a modoki (central Pacific based) El Nino later this summer into the autumn. That indicates precipitation distribution and indeed temperature could go either way between June-August so we turn to the next player.

Atlantic SST (sea surface temperature)

‘Sometimes’ cooler than normal water supports higher atmospheric pressure and warmer water, lower pressure. However that’s not always the case when other factors are thrown into the equation such as soil moisture etc.

Interestingly the waters between Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia including Scotland have significantly warmed in recent weeks thanks to stable air and incoming solar radiation while wind and cloud continue to keep waters cool around the Iberian peninsula southwards down the west coast of Africa.

Wet soil/dry soil

While there’s nowhere really dry this year, the greatest amount of water in the ground compared to normal is over Iberia extending north over France and into the southern UK. Scotland isn’t dry but it’s less wet thanks points further south.

The June-August outlook

Based on the above factors and throwing in the type of winter and spring we’ve had with cool and wet focused further south and based on May projections in temperature and precipitation, I believe the upcoming summer shall be as follows…

In the ‘means’ (the overall 90-day period), the highest pressure compared to normal will be focused across Northern Europe between Iceland and Scandinavia while heights are below normal over Iberia, western Mediterranean including Balearics and possibly south to the Canaries where a cooler, wetter summer can be expected. Any heatwaves or hot spells are likely to be short and unlikely to reach the same extremes as recent years, primarily due to wetter ground which adds humidity to the lower atmosphere therefore some of the sun’s energy is taken up with evaporation rather than heating.

Winter/Spring 2018 looking similar to 2010, More so 2013

There’s been a very nice correlation with the February through April this year to that of 2010 and more so 2013 with a similar upper/lower air pattern and ENSO, spring precipitation distribution and surrounding SST profile.

April-June 2010

Summer 2013

Like in 2010 and 2013, following a cold winter and spring and near neutral ENSO, the strongest positive 500mb height anomaly (ridging/high pressure) was positioned north between Iceland and Norway and negative anomaly south over Spain and France with changeable back and fourth weather over France and southern England/Wales and Ireland. Drier, sunnier and warmer across Northern Ireland and Scotland where July was warmest since 2006.

I believe a drier, sunnier and warmer than normal summer is likely across Iceland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and much of Scandinavia. Wetter and cooler Spain, Portugal, western Mediterranean, France extending into Belgium, Netherlands and southern/central England and Wales.

Although the above is a summary of the 90-day period, it doesn’t mean hot, dry spells won’t happen in areas south nor cool, wet days further north. It shall be a mixed summer of warm, cool, dry and wet in areas in between the low to the south and high to the north.

June could be a fairly mixed month for most of Western Europe including the whole of the UK and Ireland but as we enter late June and July, I believe heights shall build over the Northern UK bringing a fine spell of summer weather and a potential heat wave which could extend into southern England and France for a time but a break down is likely beyond a week to 10 days across southern England and France while a period of prolonged dry, sunny and warm weather persists further north.

August looks changeable but may be pretty warm with some/many cities from Madrid to Glasgow observing the hottest days of summer.

Here’s how the CFSv2 is looking for the combined June-August 2018 period.

500mb height anomaly

Precipitation anomaly

Temperature anomaly

CFSv2 month by month

June

July

August

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Holiday World

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